The NBA playoff race has been characterized by chaos in the middle, with relative stability at the top and down in the depths of the lottery. While there has been plenty of drama, since the last time we looked at the playoff picture two weeks ago most of the top teams have held their ground.
It’s been the middle class that has been chaotic. In the East, the Brooklyn Nets were on the ropes before righting their ship, while the Play-In Race has both tightened up and shed its followers. In the West everything has gone insane, and hundreds of different scenarios await the final standings in less than a week.
Let’s take a snapshot of the league with just six days remaining and every team with three or four games to go. Who is in what spot, how much can they move, and, where applicable, how it affects the Cleveland Cavaliers.
NBA Playoff picture: Western Conference
- Denver Nuggets – 52-26
- Memphis Grizzlies – 49-29
- Sacramento Kings – 47-31
- Phoenix Suns – 43-35
- LA Clippers – 41-38
- Golden State Warriors – 41-38
- Los Angeles Lakers – 40-38
- New Orleans Pelicans – 40-38
- Minnesota Timberwolves – 39-40
- Oklahoma City Thunder – 38-41
In the Hunt: Dallas Mavericks (37-42), Utah Jazz (36-42)
The Denver Nuggets are essentially locked into the top seed, but the Sacramento Kings can still catch the Memphis Grizzlies for the No. 2 seed. Phoenix looks fairly set on the four seed, setting up a second-round clash with the Denver Nuggets between the two top favorites to win the West.
The chaos is beneath them, where 5-8 all have 38 losses. Those four teams are going to shuffled around over the final few games, with the Los Angeles Lakers and LA Clippers facing off Wednesday night in a crucial contest. Below them, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder will be trying to hold off the floundering Dallas Mavericks and the too-good-to-tank Utah Jazz.
- No. 1 Denver Nuggets vs No. 8 [Second team to advance from Play-In]
- No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs No. 7 [First team to advance from Play-In]
- No. 3 Sacramento Kings vs No. 6 Golden State Warriors
- No. 4 Phoenix Suns vs No. 5 LA Clippers
There are two sides to each conference playoff bracket, and in the West there is no question that teams would rather line up in the 2/3/6/7 bracket. Sacramento has been great all year but has little playoff experience and a suspect defense, while the Memphis Grizzlies are without multiple key players due to injury. Teams like the Warriors and Clippers will try to land at sixth specifically to face Sacramento in the first round. The team that “wins” by getting to No. 5 will then have to play Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns.
NBA Playoff picture: Eastern Conference
- Milwaukee Bucks – 56-22
- Boston Celtics – 54-24
- Philadelphia 76ers – 51-27
- Cleveland Cavaliers – 49-30
- New York Knicks – 46-33
- Brooklyn Nets – 43-35
- Miami Heat – 41-37
- Atlanta Hawks – 39-39
- Toronto Raptors – 39-39
- Chicago Bulls – 38-40
In the Hunt: Orlando Magic (34-44)
The middle of the East is essentially locked: Philadelphia, Cleveland, New York and Brooklyn will almost certainly finish in that order. At the top, the Boston Celtics are just two games back of the Milwaukee Bucks and have an outside shot at catching them; PlayoffStatus.com gives the Bucks an 88 percent chance at the top seed. This obviously matters for who the Cavs play in the second round; they are 3-1 against the Celtics this season, but all overtime victories. They probably match up better with the Bucks; who would they prefer to face?
The bottom of the East playoff picture is also still in flux. The Miami Heat have the inside track to the seventh seed, but could drop back if they don’t finish strong. The Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors are neck-and-neck to secure that all-important ninth seed, while the Chicago Bulls are trying to fight their way up.
- No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs No. 8 [Second team to advance from Play-In]
- No. 2 Boston Celtics vs No. 7 [First team to advance from Play-In]
- No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs No. 6 Brooklyn Nets
- No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs No. 5 New York Knicks
The Cavaliers have a 99 percent chance of facing the Knicks in the first round, and then are very likely to see the Milwaukee Bucks if they advance. The second round looks set to pit the Celtics and 76ers, which does not bode well for Philly as they get routinely wiped by Boston. The only dangerous team in the Play-In mix is Miami, but they probably don’t have enough juice to take down the Celtics or Bucks.
There is not much that will change for the Cavaliers’ outlook based on the current NBA standings. Their path looks nearly set: New York and then Milwaukee. While the Cavs are good enough to make a run, if this season ends in the second round it won’t be a setback, merely a step on the path towards a long run of contention.