There might be a stealth contender in the Eastern Conference and it could be the 48-28 Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs are lingering behind the top three in the conference, but have won four straight and could make some noise once they get into the postseason.
They’re riding that hot streak into Atlanta tonight to face the rollercoaster, Atlanta Hawks. In their last seven games they’ve gone, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win and loss, so maybe they’re due to get back into the win column at home tonight.
Atlanta needs to do some work to get out of the play-in tournament, but they’re slight underdogs at home tonight.
Cavaliers vs. Hawks odds, spread and total
Cavaliers vs. Hawks prediction and pick
The Cavaliers have fallen out of the No. 1 spot in terms of net rating for the season and now at 5.9 are behind the Celtics. However, second isn’t bad for an all-encapsulating stat like net rating and it might be the best case to view the Cavs as championship contenders in the mix with Boston and Milwaukee in the East.
In March, they are 9-3 with a 7.7 net rating, which is third in the league over that stretch.
The case against the Cavs is their 18-20 record on the road this year. Although most every team has a bad record on the road this season, they are still ninth in road wins with the third best net rating in those games. It doesn’t appear that Atlanta will be too tough an environment for Cleveland to handle tonight.
There is one statistical oddity that worries me about the Cavs since the All-Star break.
Over that stretch, they are dead last in defensive rebound percentage, 67.7%, which doesn’t make much sense considering one of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are on the floor at all times, a lot of times both are out there.
Over that same stretch Atlanta is second in offensive rebound percentage, 33.4%. Granted, Houston is first in that statistic and the Cavs just beat them 108-91 last time out, only surrendering 12 offensive boards.
That rebounding might not be a big issue, but it’s something that I’m monitoring and might explain why so many trends with Cleveland point to the over. The over is 5-0 in their last five road games so that’ll be my bet today.
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