The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to make the playoffs. At this point, with nine games to go, they have clinched a spot in the Play-In Tournament and their “Magic Number” (wins needed to clinch a spot) for the sixth seed is just four games. They have greater than a 99 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The question, therefore, becomes who they will face in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The most likely landing spot for the Cavs is at 4th (85 percent chance per PlayoffStatus.com) which means they will match up with the 5th seed. Win that series, and they face the winner of the 1-8 matchup. That means for the Cavs, the play-in tournament has nearly zero impact on them.
What will matter is who is the top seed, who lands on the other side of the bracket, and even how the records shake out in the West in the case of any potential NBA Finals matchup. Let’s look at the current playoff picture if the season ended today and discuss any impact on the Cavaliers.
NBA Playoff picture: Western Conference
- Denver Nuggets – 48-24
- Memphis Grizzlies – 44-27 (3.5 Games Back)
- Sacramento Kings – 43.28 (4.5 GB)
- Phoenix Suns – 38-33 (9.5 GB)
- LA Clippers – 38-34 (10 GB)
- Golden State Warriors – 37-36 (11.5 GB)
- Dallas Mavericks – 36-36 (12 GB)
- Minnesota Timberwolves – 36-37 (12.5 GB)
- Oklahoma City Thunder – 35-36 (12.5 GB)
- Utah Jazz – 35-36 (12.5 GB)
In the Hunt: Los Angeles Lakers (13 GB), New Orleans Pelicans (13.5 GB)
The Denver Nuggets are in the driver’s seat for the top seed, but behind them, there is much to be decided. The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings are battling it out for homecourt in the second round, but both will be vulnerable to teams on the bottom of the bracket. The Phoenix Suns hope to get Kevin Durant back healthy, but for now, are holding a slim lead over the Clippers for fourth. Further down, the Play-In mix is a mess with every team from 6th to 12th having 36 or 37 losses.
The Cavaliers currently have a better record than any West team other than Denver, so if they made it to the NBA Finals they would have homecourt advantage over teams like the Suns, Clippers and Warriors.
- No. 1 Denver Nuggets vs No. 8 [Second team to advance from Play-In]
- No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs No. 7 [First team to advance from Play-In]
- No. 3 Sacramento Kings vs No. 6 Golden State Warriors
- No. 4 Phoenix Suns vs No. 5 LA Clippers
There is a very real chance that the most dangerous teams in the West all line up on one side of the bracket, with the Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns and a healthy LA Clippers in line for the 1-4-5 seeds. If the Warriors fell to eighth it would be a bloodbath. On the other side, teams like the Grizzlies and Kings look vulnerable, and a team could make its first run from the Play-In Tournament into the second round or even the Western Conference Finals.
NBA playoff picture: Eastern Conference
- Milwaukee Bucks – 51-20
- Boston Celtics – 49-23 (2.5 GB)
- Philadelphia 76ers – 48-23 (3 GB)
- Cleveland Cavaliers – 45-28 (7 GB)
- New York Knicks – 42-31 (10 GB)
- Brooklyn Nets – 39-32 (12 GB)
- Miami Heat – 39-34 (13 GB)
- Atlanta Hawks – 35-36 (16 GB)
- Toronto Raptors – 35-37 (16.5 GB)
- Chicago Bulls – 34-37 (17 GB)
In the Hunt: Washington Wizards (19 GB), Indiana Pacers (19.5 GB)
The Milwaukee Bucks have claimed the top spot, and now have an 84 percent chance of hanging onto it. The 76ers and Celtics are battling for the second spot, which is dangerous because it means homecourt advantage in the second round but it also likely means facing the more experienced Miami Heat team in the first round. The Cavaliers, Knicks, Nets and Heat are settling into their spots and there is a strong chance they all keep this ordering, while behind them the Play-In Tournament will continue to shuffle.
- No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs No. 8 [Second team to advance from Play-In]
- No. 2 Boston Celtics vs No. 7 [First team to advance from Play-In]
- No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs No. 6 Brooklyn Nets
- No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs No. 5 New York Knicks
Assuming the Miami Heat win to take the seventh seed, there is no team in the Play-In mix that should bother the Bucks in any way. The real battle projects to be in the 4-5, where the Knicks look like a real challenger to the Cavaliers. The two teams play next week in a critical showdown; win and the Cavs all-but lock up the fourth seed.
Otherwise, the top three seeds look poised to advance. If the Cavs win their first-round series that will mean facing the Milwaukee Bucks, whose combination of size and playoff experience will make them heavy favorites to win. The plus side is that they don’t have the wing creation to play Jarrett Allen off of the floor, allowing the Cavs to play their best lineups.
There are still most of three weeks left to the regular season, and plenty can change in the playoff picture before then. The East is like wet concrete settling into place, while the West is still a milkshake in a blender. How things turn out will have a significant impact on who ends up hoisting the trophy at the end.