Why popular podcast says Cavaliers’ Mitchell is not best shooting guard

Reason No. 2 Devin Booker was ranked ahead of Donovan Mitchell

The second primary reason that Duncan and Leroux gave for their ordering of the top shooting guards was that Devin Booker has had more postseason success. That’s another undeniable fact; Booker has been to the NBA Finals, while Mitchell topped out in the second round.

There are two primary ways to apply that fact. The first is that Booker had a better team around him two seasons ago than Mitchell ever did in Utah, and that is probably true. Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges and Deandre Ayton formed a better top-4 than Mitchell had in Utah. It also shouldn’t have much bearing on ranking the two players.

The second is to conclude that there is a weakness in Mitchell’s game that Booker does not have, that has led to that difference in playoff success. That may be true, pointing to the earlier discussion about backcourt size and defense, but the results don’t support that thesis.

First, Booker has only two playoff runs to his name despite being in the league for two seasons longer than Mitchell. In those 32 games Booker averaged 26.1 points per game, shot 35.6 percent from 3-point range and have a 0.3 total Box Plus-Minus (BPM), largely on account of a -1.2 DBPM. 32 games is a relatively small sample, but it’s all we have to go off of, and Duncan and Leroux felt it was an impactful enough sample to apply.

What about Mitchell? He made the playoffs in his rookie season and every year since, so he was thrown in the fire much earlier than Booker. In his 39 playoff games (seven more than Booker) he has averaged 28.3 points per game on 36.9 percent shooting from deep, and his BPM is a stout 4.0, with a -0.2 DBPM.

Mitchell’s 4.0 BPM in the playoffs ranks 19th in the entire NBA since he entered the league (min 10 games and 20 minutes per game). Players like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Booker’s teammate Chris Paul all rank above him. Where does Booker rank? 101st, tied with Bobby Portis and Max Strus.

Saying that Mitchell’s size and defensive limitations could make him a worse postseason player is a reasonable argument, but that hasn’t actually been the case, and especially not compared to Devin Booker. Booker has never faced a playoff series without Mikal Bridges beside him, or Deandre Ayton manning the middle, and he has mostly had Chris Paul in the lineup as well. Booker has played very well in the playoffs, but his poor defense has been a major issue, no matter than he has a slight height advantage over Mitchell.