The 2021 NBA Draft took place less than two years ago. Some of the players selected still cannot purchase alcohol. There are years and years ahead for these players to develop and for the final word on their careers to be written.
Yet even in such a short window, opinions have risen and fallen multiple times on both the individual players and the draft class as a whole. This time last year the class was being praised for its depth and star power; now the class is seemingly a disappointment.
The 2021 NBA Draft looks very different nearly two years later.
The answer is, of course, somewhere in the middle. Players can start hot and then fade, while others can start slow and then take off. Development is neither linear nor consistent; it happens differently for every player, and now always divided into neat little bundles of one season to the next.
Even so, these players are just 16 months away from being extension-eligible, and teams will begin trading them and deciding on fourth-year player options. Even with the mountain of caveats about player development, it’s important to evaluate players now to understand how they stack up to their peers and the rest of the league.
To that end, here is a 2021 NBA Redraft covering the entire first round. Which players deserve to go higher, and which ones have slipped down the list? At the top of the draft, we will emphasize upside more than later in the draft, when surefire contributors are highly valued. With every passing year, however, the promise of upside will lose ground to the reality of current production.
We begin in Detroit, where the Pistons get to add a generational defensive talent with the first overall pick.
Evan Mobley rising from third in the draft to first is partially a nod to how incredible he has been, and partially a result of Cade Cunningham looking a bit less than the surefire All-Star he was thought to be. Cunningham’s perimeter creation and shooting are more valuable than Mobley’s defense if both are at elite levels, but Cunningham was yet to put it together when he went down for the season with an injury.
A team drafting Evan Mobley (and, of course, the Cleveland Cavaliers in our normal timeline) doesn’t have to bank on Mobley’s upside; they can rely on what he has already proven. He is right now one of the 20 best defenders in the NBA, and perhaps even higher on the list than that. His combination of length, fluidity, athleticism and instincts on defense are unlike anyone else in the league. He’s the heir apparent to Anthony Davis and Kevin Garnett.
Mobley has been asked to do less on offense than other top prospects because he plays on a really good team with two All-Star-level guards. His shot attempts per game are essentially the same as last year (12.0 last season, 11.9 this year) but his scoring has increased because of improved efficiency. He is a better offensive player than a year ago, even if he isn’t called upon to dominate the ball.
Drafting Evan Mobley would give the Detroit Pistons a top-notch rim protector, someone around whom the rest of the defense can be built. His presence likely influences their trade for Jalen Duren this past year, but they also love to collect bigs so it’s hard to say. Regardless, Mobley has been the best player in this draft class and deserves to go No. 1 overall.
Franz Wagner makes a massive leap in this redraft, from his original spot at eight all the way up to second. Wagner has built on his game in nearly every way, improving as a scorer, playmaker and shooter this season. He is averaging 18.8 points per game, second only to Jalen Green among this class this season (plus Cade Cunningham if he were healthy enough to qualify). The Orlando Magic have amassed an elite frontcourt and Wagner has been right there with rookie Paolo Banchero as their best player.
The Houston Rockets originally drafted Jalen Green, and while he has shown plenty of scoring pop he is still an inefficient offensive player and a trainwreck on defense. Wagner is not Scottie Pippen (or Scottie Barnes) out there, but he is a solid defender and has been a much better all-around player thus far. Still just 21 years old, he has plenty of room to grow. The Rockets could build around Wagner and their picks later in this redraft and have a much more balanced group of players.
Cade Cunningham doesn’t fall far in our redraft, swapping places with Evan Mobley to land at No. 3 with the Cleveland Cavaliers. While the season lost to injury is not a boon for his development, it shouldn’t have a lasting effect on him either. Cade’s poor shooting to start his career — 30.9 percent from 3-point range, just 47.1 percent from 2 — is a concern, but his free-throw shooting is strong and he still projects as a strong shooter.
Cunningham is an excellent passer and at 6’6″ has the size to cause matchup issues. He is not only capable defensively but plays hard on that end, an unexpected boon in a player with his offensive role. Here in this redraft, the Cavaliers could pair Cade with Darius Garland, giving them two high-level on-ball creators who can both shoot.
Last year’s Rookie of the Year has had a more difficult second season, which could be said for any of his Toronto Raptors teammates as the entire roster has taken a step back this year. With that being said, he is still averaging 15.4 points per game and 35.3 minutes per game on a team with a positive point differential; the struggle has been more against expectations than the revelation of a bad player.
The Toronto Raptors go right back to the well here and take Barnes in our redraft. He is still long, strong and versatile defensively; he has improved as a passer and as an interior scorer. His jumper has regressed, and shooting continues to be the greatest concern for him (30.2 percent from 3 this year) but he brings a lot of value to the table and fits what the Raptors like in a prospect.
There is a case for Jalen Green to land as high as fourth in a ranking of the 2021 draftees, or to fall to the bottom of the lottery. The good? He is an explosive scorer, with the ability to get hot at any moment and the potential to develop into a player who can essentially ignore defense and get his shot up against anyone. His 21.5 points per game this season leads the class by far.
The bad? He is amassing those point totals playing for the closest thing the NBA has to the Washington Generals. He is shooting just 41.1 percent from the field and 33.6 percent from 3-point range. Despite having the ball in his hands on a largely spaced-out floor, Green is averaging just 3.9 assists versus 2.8 turnovers. He is a turnstile on defense, has a myriad of bad habits and the Rockets are a trainwreck this year yet again.
Still, the upside is very real, and on-ball shot creation is the rarest skill in the league. The Orlando Magic take the swing here, hoping to give Green a strong environment to grow in and mold him into a 1B kind of star player on the wing. If Green doesn’t start to change his profile from “inefficient chucker” to “dangerous score-first guard” then he will plummet down this redraft a year from now.
We just covered the most highly-drafted of the Houston Rockets’ four first-round picks in 2021, and now we come to their second back-to-back. Alperen Sengun has been a better player than Jalen Green through two seasons, is arguably the best player on their team right now, and rises up our redraft board to go at six to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Sengun is one of the most creative passers and finishers around the rim in the entire league, residing in the tier just below Nikola Jokic and bearing a lot of stylistic similarities to the reigning MVP. He is a great rebounder, an excellent passer and has a developing outside shot. He isn’t much of a rim protector, so pairing him with secondary rim protection at the 4 will be important, but he is a unique offensive player and deserving of a rise up redraft boards.
The Golden State Warriors originally drafted Jonathan Kuminga here, and it would be reasonable for them to take him again here. Instead, they take a player who originally went 25th to the New York Knicks, Quentin Grimes, who has been a revelation and developed into a starter for a Knicks team that has been better than the Warriors this season.
Grimes is a rugged wing defender, able to check the opposing team’s most dangerous wing threat. On top of that, he has a smooth outside jumper and is developing into a high-volume 3-point shooter; in a year or two he will likely be among the league leaders in 3-pointers made. He is a 3-and-D wing with the potential to improve even more, the kind of player who would fit perfectly on the Warriors (or any team).
Josh Giddey is a polarizing player, just as much after nearly two seasons as he was when the Oklahoma City Thunder surprisingly drafted him sixth overall in 2021. His passing is remarkable, his positional size and rebounding are strong, and he has developed as a scorer with a deep bag of flips and tricks around the basket.
The rub for Giddey is that his shot still looks broken, and he is a 30.2 percent 3-point shooter and a 74.5 percent free-throw shooter; he might still develop his shot, but a knockdown jumper isn’t hiding in his profile. You can build a well-spaced offense around a player like Giddey, but it takes work. His strengths outweigh that weakness here at eighth. The Orlando Magic pair him with Jalen Green, hopefully providing the kind of table-setter to maximize Green’s impact and development.
Trey Murphy III has been an excellent pick for the New Orleans Pelicans, who originally took the wing out of Virginia with the 17th pick. He is a true 3-point bomber, hitting 38.5 of his 5.6 3-point attempts per game. He is also a solid defender, although he can get blown by and hasn’t developed the strength to bang inside in small-ball lineups yet. The Sacramento Kings go for a player whose size and shooting make him a better fit than Davion Mitchell, their original pick here at nine.
The Memphis Grizzlies originally took Zhaire Williams, a former top prospect who has been a solid defender and shown flashes offensively, but who hasn’t put it together yet for a team that would love another option at forward. Jonathan Kuminga is the better version of Williams in this draft class in essentially every way.
Right now, Kuminga is a high-level defender, clearly showing growth as the understudy to Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. The Warriors are throwing him on players like Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James. Offensively, he is a hyper-athletic finisher and is feasting on cuts and in transition. His on-ball creation game needs some work, but there has been enough to suggest he could get there and turn into an All-Star type of player one day. He also might not, and simply settle out as an elite defender and finisher, but that combination of floor and upside is too good to fall out of the Top 10.
The most recent riser up the board, Cam Thomas has started to show flashes in the last month that he could be a dangerous weapon as an on-ball creator and scorer. His 3-point shot has turned into a weapon and he notched multiple 40-point outings in the midst of the Brooklyn Nets’ chaotic season. Only two players from this draft class have reached 40 points: Jalen Green (four times) and Cam Thomas (three times). He is a much better choice here than the Charlotte Hornets’ originally drafted point guard, James Bouknight.
Herb Jones becomes the first player in our redraft to leap into the lottery from the second round, and depending on how you value his defense could land higher or lower than this. He has been perhaps the second-best defensive player in this draft class behind only Evan Mobley, with the size, length and speed to defend multiple positions.
The problem? His offensive game is a big work in progress. His 3-pointer fell from a respectable 33.7 percent last season to 28.3 percent this year, and he doesn’t bring much in terms of high-level passing or shot creation inside the arc. Still, he’s an elite defender, and the San Antonio Spurs would love to plug such a player into their young group rather than their original pick here at 12.
Most guard prospects who struggle offensively upon entering the NBA are massive negatives to their teams, but Jalen Suggs is cut differently. His shot has completely deserted him since he was drafted (25.2 percent from 3-point range) and he isn’t finishing well from inside or at the line either. Even so, he has been a helpful player to the Orlando Magic because of his dogged defense at the point of attack. There is still hope for him to rediscover his offensive game, and if so he can be a solid two-way guard for the Indiana Pacers to pair with Tyrese Haliburton.
This is the most wild pick of this entire redraft, with the undrafted Jose Alvarado flying up to the last pick of the lottery. “Grand Theft Alvarado” is averaging just nine points per game in his second season but brings so much value to his team in other areas, from his insane on-ball defense to his fearless rim attacks to his brash leadership. He is the kind of player every coach wants on the roster and every player wants to go to war with, and for a Warriors team trying to win titles, the pairing of Quentin Grimes and Alvarado gives them a defensive backcourt to rotate in that will set the tone against any opponent.
2021 Redraft: Picks 15-30
15. Washington Wizards – Ayo Dosunmo, Guard
16. Houston Rockets – Bones Hyland, Guard
17. New Orleans Pelicans – Moses Moody, Wing
18. Oklahoma City Thunder – Jalen Johnson, Forward
19. Charlotte Hornets – Davion Mitchell, Guard
20. Atlanta Hawks – Corey Kispert, Forward
21. LA Clippers – Austin Reaves, Wing
22. Indiana Pacers – Chris Duarte, Wing
23. Houston Rockets – Santi Aldama, Forward
24. Houston Rockets – Zhaire Williams, Forward
25. New York Knicks – Miles McBride, Guard
26. Denver Nuggets – Jericho Sims, Center
27. Brooklyn Nets – Aaron Wiggins, Wing
28. Philadelphia 76ers – Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
29. Brooklyn Nets – Usman Garubo, Big
30. Memphis Grizzlies – Neemias Queta
Once you get past pick No. 13 the board really drops off. There are players with upside scattered throughout, from Moses Moody to Jalen Johnson to Zhaire Williams. This second half of the first round could be numbered in nearly any order. The players at the top still boast a ton of star potential, but very quickly this draft turns into a collection of solid role players. There is nothing wrong with that, but the strength of this class is certainly not what it was assumed to be.