The 2021 NBA Draft is less than six months behind us, but still opinions on those players chosen has fluctuated wildly. Teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers can rejoice because their picks have balled out, while teams like the Charlotte Hornets have larger question marks.
The current rookies in the league represent the future for so many franchises, which is why it is so valuable to keep an eye on the class. Which teams have future stars, and which look to be holding a bum hand? And which front offices seem to have excelled or flopped in evaluating talent?
The 2021 rookie class has been exciting to watch. What would the NBA Draft look like if we had today’s information?
Obviously, we don’t have enough information to properly reorder these players. Even if a rookie has been bad, that doesn’t mean we throw out their college production, draft capital or upside. Some players are more long-term projects, and others are more fully realized now but with lower upside. Every season rookies make the All-Rookie Team only to fizzle out (Eric Paschall or Josh Jackson being recent examples) while others start poorly only to explode in subsequent seasons (Jordan Poole or De’Aaron Fox).
Caveats aside, it’s fun to look at how the draft might unfold if teams had today’s information for July’s draft. Which players would move up and down? We are going to weight results based on the season thus far; talented players who have been terrible get knocked while middling prospects who have started strong get a rise. All trades that occurred before and around the draft stay the same. Finally, given the proximity to the draft and what teams needed then vs now, we’ll factor in the team needs more than we would if we were redrafting the 2015 NBA Draft, for example.
Alright, all the rules are laid out. Let’s see who the Cavs end up with at No. 3, because there is no way they would get Evan Mobley again in a redraft. Speaking of that budding superstar, let’s start with him.
It’s rare for an NBA rookie to step into the league and be a positive defensive player. When it happens, it’s usually for defensive specialists who play smaller roles and provide little defensive value — a rookie Matisse Thybulle, for example. It’s unheard of for a rookie to be a high-minute player with a significant offensive role and also be elite on defense from day one.
Evan Mobley is no longer being compared solely to the rest of his draft class, but rather to all-time great big men, from Tim Duncan to Kevin Garnett to Chris Webber. Duncan played four years in college before entering the league and had one of the best rookie seasons of all time. Mobley isn’t on his level offensively, but defensively he is right there with the all-time great defensive rookie seasons.
His production now is best in the class, and his trajectory now points higher than theirs as well. It would be a surprise now if Mobley wasn’t a multi-time All-Star, and it’s within the possibility for him to be a Top 5 player in the league. Anthony Davis is a reasonable expectation now, and certainly not his ceiling.
In the original 2021 NBA Draft the Detroit Pistons drafted Cade Cunningham, and Cade certainly hasn’t done anything to suggest he is a worse player than expected. The reality is just that Mobley has been so good he is undeniable with the No. 1 overall pick. Detroit could build their team around Mobley and know they had a generational defensive talent for a long time.
Scottie Barnes seemed like a reach at No. 5 on draft night, but now he looks like the second-best prospect in the class. After rarely taking jumpers in college he has come into the league and immediately shushed whispers that he was the next Ben Simmons, unleashing a competent jumper and being willing to take as many shots as he is asked to. Barnes can score, handle, pass and play good defense — he’s the version of Ben Simmons the league never got.
Originally the Rockets took Jalen Green, but here they get a two-way rising star to pair with Christian Wood (they won’t be getting Alperen Sengun here either). They have been abysmal defensively trying to pair Kevin Porter Jr. with Jalen Green in the backcourt, but taking Barnes allows them to go in another more balanced direction on the wing.
While in real life the explosion of Evan Mobley to the top of the rookie ladder is a huge positive for the Cavs both this season and next, in this alternate reality he is no longer available for them at No. 3. Thankfully the consolation prize is not too bad, as Cade Cunningham is the big wing creator this team has desperately needed since LeBron James left.
Cunningham is not a hyper athlete, so there are some concerns about his ability to finish inside or to become a truly elite offensive engine. Even so he has been a good offensive player from the beginning, handling the ball as a 6’6″ playmaker and averaging 5.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game. His shooting has been a little cold to start the year, but his 84.8 percent mark from the free-throw line and smooth stroke indicate it should come around.
What sets Cunningham apart from other top perimeter creators in the draft like Jalen Green or Josh Giddey is that he brings value on defense as well. He hustles on that end of the court like few players of his pedigree, and the Pistons have been better on defense when he plays than when he doesn’t.
Cunningham would be an excellent fit on the Cavs given their unique roster makeup as well. Cunningham could defend 3s, sliding Lauri Markkanen to the 4 and giving this roster a lot more flexibility positionally. He and Garland could complement each other while on the court together, and then each could run the show while the other sits. Cunningham might not have the same upside as Mobley but he still has a lot, and in this alternate timeline the Cavs still get an extremely valuable player.
One of the surprises of the season from this rookie class has been the play of Franz Wagner, who originally went eighth to the Orlando Magic. In our redraft he isn’t even available for the Magic with their first pick as he goes off the board fourth. Wagner has been great as a combo forward with surprisingly developed perimeter skills. He leads the entire rookie class in scoring at 15.7 points per game, and despite playing on the worst team in the Eastern Conference has provided 2.2 win shares of value, third in the class behind Mobley and Barnes. Given the Raptors’ love of big forwards, he is a great pick for them here at No. 4.
The emergence of Cole Anthony for the Orlando Magic this season might make them rethink their positional choice here, as Anthony and their original draft pick Jalen Suggs overlap quite a bit — and even more with Markelle Fultz, yet to play this season due to injury. In our redraft there isn’t as clear of a tier break and the Magic can consider multiple options. Given their deep stable of bigs the pick is a wing who can provide playmaking.
Enter Josh Giddey, the Australian sensation who just became the youest player in NBA history to log a triple double. He leads the class in assists per game by a county mile, flashing confident shot-making and a quick analysis of the court. He’s also been a poor shooter and a bad defender, but as one of the youngest players in this class he has plenty of room to grow.
One of the most unique bigs in the league is Alperen Sengun, who is a scintillating combination of creative passing, post touch and abysmal defense. Does he develop into Domantas Sabonis or is he more Greg Monroe? Coming from playing in Europe it makes sense that his skill level is high for a rookie big and his defense is poor. Does the defense improve, or does the skill level off?
For now, his passing creativity is special and we lean on that playmaking ability in elevating him from 15th to sixth in our redraft. The Oklahoma City Thunder get a big man to pair with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as they continue their rebuild.
Our first marriage of team and player that stays the same in our redraft! Jonathan Kuminga has not had a lot of playing time as he joined a title contender, but the Golden State Warriors’ rookie has shown flashes of brilliance on both ends when he has played. Just this past week he blew up for 25 points on 10-of-12 shooting in a blowout win over the Chicago Bulls. He is a superb athlete who explodes to the rim for dunks and for blocks, and he might become the bridge star the Warriors were hoping he could be.
Originally the Orlando Magic took Jalen Suggs at No. 5 overall, but in the redraft he drops to No. 8 — yet still with the Magic. In this scenario they first took Australian wing Josh Giddey, and the two players should complement each other well — Suggs with defense and shot-making, Giddey with playmaking vision. Suggs falls because he has been a fairly poor offensive player thus far, but he has been a positive impact player overall because of his defense. If the offense comes around the Magic would have a steal here at No. 8.
Jalen Green drops even further than his fellow Jalen, all the way to No. 9 to join the Sacramento Kings. He has been the most damaging player in this class thus far, pairing awful defense, inefficient shooting and poor playmaking with plenty of minutes. That’s not an indictment of Green, as many athletic scoring guards struggle early; it’s also not a point in his favor. The Houston Rockets went 1-16 to start the season with Green playing a significant role, then won 9 of 15 games with Green sidelined by injury. Since Green returned? 3-9 in 12 games.
Green tumbles a bit, but the value and upside is too great for the Sacramento Kings here. Adding Green gives them the flexibility to pair him with a good passing guard in De’Aaron Fox, and potentially use Tyrese Haliburton (or even Fox) in a play for someone like Ben Simmons.
Coming into the 2021 NBA Draft everyone knew Chris Duarte was a “win-now” player, someone ready to step into an NBA rotation from day one. If he had fallen to 14 the Golden State Warriors would certainly be playing him minutes right now as they pursue a title. The Indiana Pacers thought the same in taking him in the late lottery the first time aroud.
Here he rises a bit, filling the need for the Memphis Grizzlies on the wing. They might swing for the fences and higher upside if they truly did this over, but Duarte is good now and could still get better down the line. As the Grizzlies have leapt into the Top tier of the West in the regular season, having a more reliable wing in Duarte could be their pick.
The Sacramento Kings took Davion Mitchell to complement their offense-first guards and juice the defense, and he has been great defensively and “meh” on offense to start his career. Here the Charlotte Hornets do the same thing, pairing Mitchell with LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier (who is an underrated defender) to form an excellent guard rotation.
The greatest riser of the redraft thus far, Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland comes from No. 26 up to No. 12 and a spot in the lottery. Hyland is a microwave scorer, a player ready to come into the game and get buckets. He can shoot, has a tight handle and is already a creative finisher inside. The San Antonio Spurs have a number of steady guards, but this would inject some pizazz into their rotation.
Ziaire Williams was taken No. 10 overall by the Memphis Grizzlies as a bit of a project, a raw combo forward who had the upside to become their third star, the big forward teams covet to win in the playoffs. He had a rough start but has come on of late, suggesting the Grizzlies — perhaps the league’s best drafting front office — yet again was on to something.
Here the Pacers get their swing at a difference-maker, the opposite of what they did originally in taking the older and established Chris Duarte. Williams is also the last member of the Top 10 to go; all 10 stayed within the lottery, which is surprising — someone always seems to flame out, and quickly. For not all 10 look like future starters, a very solid feat for a rookie class.
The Warriors could have gone in a number of directions here, from a backup point guard like Ayo Dosunmo to a toolsy forward in Jalen Johnson. Their original pick, Moses Moody, would not be out of place either. But since this is a redraft emphasizing the play of the rookie class thus far, we have to give the nod to Herbert Jones, the Alabama forward drafted in the second round by the New Orleans Pelicans.
Thought to be a defensive specialist with little-to-no offense, Jones has instead shouldered a large load as a key rotation player for the Pelicans. He is shooting 39.7 percent from deep, 82.4 percent from the line and has been one of the few bright spots for a struggling New Orleans team. The Warriors have another body to throw at opposing forwards who won’t compromise their spacing, a useful player to have.
2021 NBA Redraft: Best of the Rest
There are plenty of other players who were in consideration, as this draft class is already providing itself to be one of the deepest in recent memory. Perhaps because of the rash of injuries and COVID absences, more and more rookies are stepping up to play significant roles.
Ayo Dosunmo has been a solid backup guard for the Chicago Bulls, earning rotation minutes on the East’s first-place squad. Kessler Edwards has stepped into a regular role with the Brooklyn Nets, playing tough defense and bombing away from deep. Quentin Grimes has impressed when on the court for the New York Knicks.
Other players have shown value in the G League with massive performances, but haven’t seen much time in the NBA yet. Jalen Johnson looks like the player most likely to make the lottery in our next redraft, while Moses Moody is buried by the Warriors’ roster but balling out in the G League.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl has been a solid big man for the Oklahoma City Thunder, and BJ Boston has shown some exciting flashes for the LA Clippers and in the G League. Finally, Trey Murphy III and Corey Kispert have struggled with their shots, but once those percentages come back around they could be elite-level role players.
The 2021 NBA Draft is stocked with talented players, from long-term projects to those playing well from the start. Evan Mobley leads the way as the best of this group, going first overall, and the Cavs get an excellent consolation prize in Cade Cunningham. Who will move up and down when we do this again at the end of the season?