Bucks vs. Cavaliers prediction and odds for Saturday, January 21

It turns out that Donovan Mitchell was a little bit important to the Cleveland Cavaliers getting to 28-19. They’ve been without him for the past two games and lost both including last night’s 120-114 loss to the Warriors. Darius Garland did his best to carry the offense, but he couldn’t contend with even a severely depleted Warriors lineup. Sometimes it might be better to play a team with their best players, because Cleveland definitely left their foot off the gas with no Steph Curry or Klay Thompson on the other side.

Milwaukee won’t need to rest their starters tonight like Golden State did because the Bucks haven’t played since Tuesday night against Toronto, a 130-122 win at home. A lot is up in the air with this one, Giannis Antetekoumpo is questionable, and so is Mitchell. If they’re both out, then this matchup of top teams in the Eastern Conference starts to lose its luster.

I’m not sure Vegas knows what to do with this one because of the question marks, so Cleveland is a very slight favorite at home.

The Bucks are taking it slow with Giannis and his knee injury, and if they keep winning without him then they can certainly afford to be cautious. They lost their first two games without him, both to Miami, but since then it’s back-to-back wins over Indiana and Toronto. They’ve fallen behind Boston for the No. 1 seed in the east, but are keeping pace with Philadelphia and currently sit in the second spot. On Tuesday, Jrue Holiday reminded people why he was such a coveted player by Milwaukee and is one of the best two-way guards in the NBA. He finished with 37 points, six rebounds and seven assists. Over these four games without Giannis, they have a slightly negative net rating and are 14th in offensive rating over that stretch, not ideal, but certainly not a massive drop off.

The bigger drop off for Milwaukee is their defense, Brook Lopez isn’t as imposing in the paint without Giannis roaming that side of the floor with him. If Giannis is sidelined, then I think the offensive end could come fairly easily to Cleveland even without Mitchell. The change for Cleveland without Mitchell is that Darius Garland has the ball in his hands more and wants to play faster. For the season, they play at the slowest pace, even slower than Dallas, over their most recent two games, they’re 23rd in the NBA in pace. Not a massive improvement, but enough for me to see value on the over tonight.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change

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