Opponents are shredding the Cavs from 3, but it’s no big deal

On Friday night, the Cleveland Cavaliers lost to the Denver Nuggets by 13 points. Playing without Donovan Mitchell, the Cavs put up 108 points, but they gave up 121 to the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic had a triple-double, ho-hum for him, but perhaps more impressively hit three of his four 3-point attempts. It’s only the second time all season the MVP candidate has hit as many.

As a team, the Nuggets shot 17-of-35 from deep, a sizzling 48.6 percent. Bruce Brown, hardly a 3-point sniper, went 3-for-5. Every starter for Denver hit a 3-pointer. It was an evisceration from beyond the arc, and has Cavs fans and pundits talking about the Cavaliers’ poor 3-point defense.

The Cleveland Cavaliers were scorched by the Nuggets, and it wasn’t the first time.

The shooting performance of the Nuggets is potentially more concerning because it’s not the first time it has happened. Most memorably, the Brooklyn Nets came into Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse and shot 60 percent from deep against the Cavs, going 18-of-30 from long-range.

Remember the loss to the Indiana Pacers on December 29th when the Pacers couldn’t miss? They shot 19-of-31 from deep, 61.3 percent. Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield combined for 11 3-pointers on just 14 attempts! The Cavs let the anemic Toronto Raptors offense go 19-of-37 from deep (51.4 percent) in their third loss to the Raptors this season.

For those counting at home, the Cavaliers have lost four times in their last 10 games, and in all of them, their opponents shot 48.6 percent or better from deep. For reference, the league average on 3-pointers is 35.7 percent this season.

For the season, the Cavaliers’ opponents are hitting 36.7 percent of their 3-pointers. That ranks fourth-highest in the league (all shooting stats courtesy of NBA.com). Over the last 10 games, their opponents are hitting an insane 42.1 percent on 3-point shots, which leads the league by a mile. Playing the Cavs over the past three weeks transforms entire teams into a Curry brother.

That stat largely sums up the Cavs’ record over the past 10 games. They were the number one defense in the league, but now they’ve slipped to second and are 17th over their last 10 games. To be a contender the Cavs need to be an elite defense.

The narratives are there. The Cavs are playing poorly on defense, they’re leaving shooters wide open, this is due to fatigue or a flaw in team-building, etc. The only problem with these grand statements of woe? They’re not true.

The NBA is a make-or-miss league, and history has borne out that teams largely do not have much of an effect on the percentage an opponent shoots from deep. Instead, their defensive scheme and effort can influence how many 3-point attempts a team makes.

Over the course of the entire season, the Cavs are 19th in the percentage of an opponent’s shots that are taken from 3-point range, or essentially right around league average. Over the last 10 games? They are 17th, or basically the same. Their defense recently has continued to execute similarly in the amount of 3-pointers they give up.

Ah, but you may say that quantity and quality are two different things. What about wide-open 3-pointers? If the Cavs’ defense has broken down, then the threes they are giving up must be wide-open.

For the season the Cavs are 18th in the league in that 18 percent of their opponents’ 3-pointers that are considered “wide-open” (no defender within six feet). For context, the league leader is the Houston Rockets at 23.2. Opponents are unsurprisingly shooting 38.9 percent on those wide-open 3-pointers (11th in the league).

Over the last 10 games, Cavaliers opponents are shooting a bonkers 49.2 percent from deep on wide-open 3-pointers. So the Cavs are probably leaving opponents wide open all of the time, right? Nope. They are allowing just 15.8 percent of opponent 3-pointers to be wide open, 3rd-best in the league.

That’s right. Even though the Cavs are last in the league in opponent 3-point shooting over the last 10 games, they actually are one of the very best in ensuring those 3-pointers are not wide-open. If anything, their defense has gotten tighter over the past 10 games. Talented NBA players are hitting shots that are, on average, tougher than normal against the Cavs.

There’s nothing the Cavs can do about that. They are continuing to play good defense, they are contesting shots, and their opponents are hitting more of them than expected. That number will likely regress to the mean, so moving forward opponents won’t be expected to shoot any better than average against Cleveland.

Should you be worried about the Cavs’ defense? Not at all. Instead, get excited for how much better then can be once they get to full strength. The defense is there; when the shots stop falling for their opponents, watch out.