On Monday night the Cleveland Cavaliers hosted the Brooklyn Nets to close out their homestand, and ultimately lost the game 125-117. On the surface that seems like a strong win by the Nets and a clearcut loss for the Cavs. Facts like the Nets shooting 60 percent from 3-point range seem to tell the story of how that loss happened, not whether it should have.
The reality is that in the NBA, shooting variance is wide enough that even comfortable victories can be snatched from the jaws of defeat if your shots go down. The concept of “Shot Quality” is to evaluate each shot based on the expected percentage that it will go in, taking into account a player’s location, their shooting average and the positioning of defenders.
That allows them to project what the score of a game should be, based on the quality of the shots taken. In the Cavs’ loss to the Nets on Monday the shot quality of both teams suggested that the Cavaliers should have been the victors:
🔺 Actual Score: Nets 125-117 Cavaliers
— ShotQuality (@Shot_Quality) December 27, 2022
🔺 ShotQuality Score: Nets 109-112 Cavaliers
Based on the quality of shots taken:
🔺 Nets win 43% of the time
🔺 Cavaliers win 57% of the time pic.twitter.com/CmOYZ2Efkp
Cleveland took away the paint and forced the Nets to hit jumpers, and while they went in on Monday they won’t always do so. We all need to be careful writing narratives in ink based on a single game.
More Cavs news
The Cavs have a number of options available to them on the trade market. Should they look to add a movement shooter, a 3-and-D wing, or a stretch big? Well, this morning we explored a potential trade that could add all three and evaluated this deal for a Croatian scorer on the trade market.
Speaking of trades, the Donovan Mitchell trade was a highlight of the year for the Cavaliers franchise. What were the other top moments of the year 2022? Over at the site we listed our top 5 – what makes your list?
NBA news
Zion Williamson was incredible last night, putting up a career-high 43 points and absolutely taking over down the stretch for the New Orleans Pelicans in a win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Another big-time performance was happening at the same time in Chicago, where DeMar DeRozan scored 42 points to outduel Giannis Antetokounmpo and his 45 points, 22 rebounds and seven assists.
The phrase “a fight broke out in Detroit” may bring back dark memories for some basketball fans, but thankfully the scuffle that occurred last night between the Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons stayed on the court. Mo Wagner committed a bad foul against Killian Hayes, who responded with a cheap shot to the back of Wagner’s head. Suspensions will be coming.
Coming up: After a couple of days off, the Cavs are in Indiana to take on the Pacers.