The Cavaliers are playoff contenders, but not yet title contenders

The Cleveland Cavaliers were overachievers last season as they reached the NBA Play-In Tournament, losing to the Brooklyn Nets and the Atlanta Hawks. If they hadn’t lost some key games and endured vital injuries down the stretch, they would’ve made it to the actual playoffs and avoided the Play-In.

Koby Altman saw the potential in Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen as a trio, with Garland and Allen getting to the All-Star Game, so he pulled the trigger and acquired All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell from the Utah Jazz via trade in the offseason. The Play-In Tournament appearance paired with the acquisition of Mitchell instantly thrust the Cavaliers into the contender discussion.

The discussion of what kind of contender they are has been mixed. Some people argue that the Cavs are playoff contenders, while others believe they’re title contenders. Each side has a valid argument for why the Cavaliers are title contenders or not, but this season, the Cleveland Cavaliers are only postseason contenders.

Here’s why the Cavaliers are playoff, not title, contenders this year.

After Sunday night’s 92-81 loss against the New York Knicks at “The World’s Most Famous Arena,” Madison Square Garden, and then a rebound 116-102 win over the Los Angeles Lakers at home on Tuesday, Cavaliers are 16-9.

They’re 4.0 games behind the top-seeded Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, they’re 2.0 games behind the Milwaukee Bucks in the Central Division. The Cavs’ Tuesday night game, which was broadcasted nationally on TNT, marked the first of five consecutive games against the Western Conference, three of which were set to be in the friendly confines of Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse (RMFH).

After their W over L.A. on Tuesday, the Cavaliers are now 11-1 at home on the season. Their lone loss came against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Nov.13, 129-125. Darius Garland scored 51 points in that game! That game against the T-Wolves also came on the heels of a five-game Detroit-California road trip. The first home game after a long road trip like that is always challenging, but it was made more challenging because the Cavs had to play that game without Mitchell or Allen.

Thus far, the Cavs have played 25 games. During that stretch, they’ve had to play two games each against the top two teams in the East, the Celtics (20-5) and the Bucks (17-6). The Cavs are 2-0 against the Celtics, including a 114-113 overtime home victory in early November. The Celtics and Cavaliers won’t exchange pleasantries again until early March. On the other hand, the Bucks are 2-0 against the Cavs and both games were relative blowouts, 113-98 and 117-102. Granted, both contests were at the Fiserv Forum. Milwaukee comes to Cleveland on Dec. 21 and Jan. 21 (the night after hosting Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors).

The Toronto Raptors are 12-12 and eighth in the East, just outside of the playoffs. They’re 2-0 against Cleveland in Toronto, including a 100-88 win in Toronto in late November. The Cavaliers host the Raptors on Dec. 23 and Feb. 26. The Celtics and Bucks are each legit title contenders, while the Raptors will be right in the thick of the playoff picture again this season, so they’re each measuring stick opponents for Cleveland. The Cavs look like a team that could do damage in the playoffs on some nights or a team that’s still trying to gel together.

However, the Cavs could have beaten the Raptors on opening night had Darius Garland not suffered an eye injury in the second quarter. Garland was then out for the next five games before making his return against the Celtics in early November.

Right now, forward Dean Wade is out three-to-four weeks with a shoulder injury, Jarrett Allen has been in and out of the lineup with a back injury (he came back Tuesday night against L.A.), and Ricky Rubio is still recovering from last season’s knee injury. Throughout the season, the Cavs have had to endure injuries up and down their roster. As a result, J.B. Bickerstaff has had to push different buttons and put out lineups that might not otherwise go together.

The Cavs have had to dip into their G-League affiliate, the Cleveland Charge, and call up players to fulfill roster spots. With the way guys on the Cavs roster are getting injured, those players might end up getting meaningful minutes in key games. Perhaps we’ll see brothers Isaiah Mobley and Evan Mobley together at some point. The disruption of injuries has delayed the chemistry-building process, which could come back to bite the Cavaliers in crunch time of the season and prevent title contention.

Moreover, there have been multiple games where Garland and Mitchell were essentially forced to play 30+ minutes and/or well north of that. Including December, there are five months to go in the regular season. If Mitchell and Garland have to continue playing 30+ minutes in each game before the nitty gritty part of the season, they will be worn down when the Cavs really need them to deliver. They might not have to play such heavy minutes when Rubio comes back, but he isn’t expected to be back until January.

That’s exactly what doomed the Cavaliers last season. They were in prime position to secure a playoff spot without going through the Play-In Tournament, but then they suffered key injuries and lost important games down the stretch which sent them into the Play-In. This season could play out in a similar manner if the stars have to log too many minutes too early in the season.

Throughout the season, Bickerstaff has had to manipulate the small forward (SF) position. Caris LeVert was the starting SF at the beginning of the season, but he’s dealt with injuries which meant Lamar Stevens and Mamadi Diakite have stepped into the position. The small forward position in the Cavs’ starting lineup has been like a revolving door. In the loss against the Knicks, Diakite and Stevens were both in the starting lineup. Although that was because Allen was injured, Bickerstaff had to put something together.

Not having a definitive starting small forward is a huge issue, especially because of the talent in the East such as Boston’s Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo (to some degree), Miami’s Jimmy Butler, and Toronto’s Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes.

Perhaps rookie Ochai Agbaji could’ve filled the starting small forward vacancy, but he was shipped off to the Jazz along with Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton, pick swaps and draft picks in exchange for Donovan Mitchell. Isaac Okoro was drafted fifth overall by the Cavaliers in the 2020 NBA Draft. The team thought he would be an integral part of the young core and develop an offensive game along the way. However, his offensive game has left a lot to be desired.

The Cavs can make a move closer to the trade deadline and bring in someone like Cam Reddish of the Knicks, Kyle Kuzma of the Washington Wizards, or Kelly Oubre Jr. of the Charlotte Hornets to solidify the position, in theory. Should the Cavs pull the trigger for one of these guys, Okoro could be packing his bags. The Cavs are not true title contenders until they resolve their small forward issue.

There’s no doubt that the Cavaliers are playoff contenders this season. They could win a first-round series and push their second-round opponent, most likely against the Bucks or Celtics, to a Game 7 nail-biter that comes down to the final 10 seconds of regulation. However, it’s been a mixed bag against the other contenders, Garland and Mitchell have to play heavy minutes early in the season, the team has dealt with countless injuries, and the starting small forward position isn’t solidified.

All these factors add up to the Cavaliers being playoff contenders this season, but not title contenders.