Predicting Jarrett Allen’s stat line with Cavs in 2022-23

Last season, Jarrett Allen took his game to another level. In his first full season with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Allen had career-bests in points and rebounds per outing, with 16.1 and 10.8, respectively.

He established himself as one of the cornerstone players for the Cavaliers in that time, and he, along with Darius Garland, and a number of others, helped Cleveland nearly make a postseason berth.

Had that occurred, it would’ve been the first time the Cavaliers made the postseason without LeBron James since 1998. Cleveland fell just short of that, losing two games in the Play-In Tournament, but it was a promising season, and it was great to see Allen take a step forward.

Allen had a career year in 2021-22, and like Garland, made his first All-Star Game.

Allen demonstrated more elite roll man play, a better finishing touch with finesse and there were encouraging flashes of on-ball work inside. Furthermore, it was impressive to see Evan Mobley and Allen do such outstanding work in tandem on the defensive end, where both of them were huge reasons why the Cavs were fifth in the NBA in defensive rating last season.

Cleveland did admittedly tail off in the closing stretch of last regular season on defense, partially because Allen missing most of that time due to a fractured finger, and Mobley missed some time with an ankle sprain. Plus, Dean Wade missing a considerable chunk of the season’s closing stretch with a partially torn meniscus didn’t aid the team there, either.

Still, it was, to reiterate, a promising 2021-22 campaign for the Cavaliers as a group, and they won 44 games. And in 2022-23, the Wine and Gold is well-positioned to make some real noise in the Eastern Conference, based on last season, and they did acquire Donovan Mitchell via trade from the Utah Jazz last month.

It did take a haul, which included Collin Sexton (via sign-and-trade), Lauri Markkanen, among other assets, but I did understand Cleveland’s reasoning there. Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen is among the league’s best young cores, if not the best, moving forward.

With that said, while Garland, Mitchell and Mobley I’d imagine are the top three offensive options this upcoming season, for the most part. Even with that in mind, Allen should still receive his share of opportunities, and will.

So what’s a realistic stat line for Allen to average with the Cavs in 2022-23?

As it pertains to Allen’s outlook this season, he’s still a player that should get his share of looks.

Now, he’s not going to be the offensive presence of Garland, Mitchell or Mobley, and I’d expect Kevin Love to have a healthy amount of catch-and-shoot looks in his stretches, primarily off the bench. Plus, Caris LeVert figures to be an offensive contributor to watch, whether or not he ultimately starts or comes off the bench more regularly. Although, as an aside, he’s a guy that could be an expiring trade candidate; we’ll see how things unfold on that front.

Anyways, when it comes to a realistic stat line for Allen this season, I could foresee his offensive overall splits declining a bit, with others, such as Mitchell, involved, and a possible Mobley offensive leap in his second year.

I could foresee Allen having roughly 13.5-14.0 or so points per contest, factoring in those elements, but that doesn’t mean his offensive progression will be stunted.

We saw Allen last season demonstrate growth as a finisher with touch with both hands, such as in some push shots as a cutter, and on-ball, with hook shots after gaining quality interior position. Allen also flashed some driving ability from time to time against less athletic bigs, and here and there, he has hit some mid-range looks off-the-catch. So, perhaps in his sixth season and with him more comfortable with Cleveland, he’ll peel back more layers to his offense, even if the scoring splits come down a bit.

From there, in relation to his rebounding, I’d still imagine he should be in the ball park of 10.0 or 10.5 boards per contest, given what he means on the glass on both ends. Hopefully Cleveland, however, is more consistent on the defensive glass this season, as a side note.

As for the rim protection element, Allen having about 1.5-1.8 blocks per game to me seems feasible. Last season, he had 1.3 per outing, and with him anchoring the defense, what was suggested is about what I’d foresee playing out.

He was regularly among the league leaders in shot contests last year, too, along with Mobley, and the key with both is their ability to be impactful players there, but also while fouling minimally. Allen was fifth in the NBA in shot contests per outing last season, and Mobley was third, per NBA.com’s hustle data.

Plus, although Allen is not Mobley in terms of switchability, he did make strides there defensively last season, and his improved quickness should help Allen continue progression there this year.

Overall, while Allen’s offensive splits could be down a bit, he’ll still be invaluable for Cleveland on both ends. At still only 24, he’s got time to round out his game in years to come, too, in my estimation.