Cavs and Warriors both disrespected by ESPN stat projections
How Cavs outperform the projections from ESPN
Back to the Cleveland Cavaliers. If a generally reliable projection model has the Cavs merely treading water despite adding Donovan Mitchell, is everyone else wrong about the Cavs’ chances of moving up the standings this season?
No, probably not. What the model can do is help to apply a layer of caution on those ready to anoint the Cavaliers as a true contender in the Eastern Conference this year. The Cavs did take a big step forward last season; Donovan Mitchell was a big problem defensively the last few seasons. Until this group proves it will defend at a high level with Mitchell and Darius Garland in the backcourt, and shows its gains last year were consolidated, there is reason for some healthy skepticism.
That has to be balanced with this team’s incredible upside, too. The Cavs will likely be better in two years than they are now, but it’s possible everything comes together quickly and they’re an instant contender. The Oklahoma City Thunder had an ultra-young group that made a huge leap and then built on that to make the Conference Finals the next year; that’s the ceiling for what the Cavs can do this season.
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Over / under 43 wins and an eighth-place finish in the East this year? I’m betting the over for this group, who are young and hungry and only going to get better. ESPN’s projection model has a dollop of helpful conservatism, but it’s flat-out wrong about where the Cavs, and Warriors, will finish this season.