Why Cavs are so low in ESPN stat projections
Last season the Cleveland Cavaliers won 44 games, but they had the point differential of an even stronger team, checking in around 46 wins. They were among the very best teams to miss the playoffs in the last decade. Adding in Donovan Mitchell would presumably have only improved things moving forward for the Cavs and their projection. Not so fast.
Pelton explains the reasoning behind the Cavs’ low projection as suffering “from the team’s massive leap in the standings last season.” The model looks at three years of data, and three seasons ago the Cavs were a terrible team and Darius Garland was a complete mess coming off of injury as a rookie. He was better in year two, but the Cavs still only won 22 games.
The leap that the Cavs made a season ago looks completely sustainable. Jarrett Allen is the real deal as a rim protector, Darius Garland was a deserving All-Star, and Evan Mobley looks poised to explode into a top-40 player and defensive star this season. Yet many teams that take a big leap in the standings fall back to earth the following season — the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks both fit that trend last year — so history suggests conservatism for a team like the Cavs.
Pelton also mentions that Donovan Mitchell was one of the 10-worst defenders in the entire NBA according to Real-Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM). Mitchell has been outspoken the past couple of weeks on how he needs to improve as a defender, and he has the physical tools to do so, but the model is right to be skeptical until he proves it.