Cavs and Warriors both disrespected by ESPN stat projections

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the league’s most exciting up-and-coming teams. One year after doubling their win total from 22 in 2020-21 to 44 and a Play-In berth in 2021-22, they have added an All-Star guard in Donovan Mitchell and look poised to take an even larger step forward.

If I were to tell you that a prominent ESPN stats-based projection model predicted that the Cavs would win one more game than the Golden State Warriors this year, most Cavs fans would take that to the bank. The Warriors just won the NBA Championship, have one of the world’s two or three best players in Stephen Curry, and are entering this season fully healthy.

The catch? This model has the Golden State Warriors projected for just 41.9 wins, and the Cavaliers for only 42.9 wins and an eighth-place finish in the Eastern Conference. One year after winning 44 games and finishing eighth, the Cavs would simply flounder in place. It’s an awful lot of disrespect for both teams from this statistical model.

An ESPN stats projection has the Cavs and Warriors barely making the playoffs. Why are they so low, and how do the Cavs outperform the projection?

You can view the model here (subscription required). It should be noted that while ESPN Senior NBA Writer Kevin Pelton puts out the projections, they are purely churned out by his model. He has influence over the rotations, but he isn’t subjectively moving teams up or down. So get mad at the model, not at Pelton, who is one of the best in the business.

Why are the Cavs and Warriors so low? And are they doomed to finish near the bottom of the playoff picture in their respective conferences? Let’s dig a little deeper and reveal why the model might be wildly wrong about both teams.