What would a successful rookie season look like for Cavs’ Ochai Agbaji?
In the first round of the 2022 NBA Draft, the Cleveland Cavaliers owned the 14th overall pick, in which they selected wing Ochai Agbaji from Kansas. Agbaji played 4 years in college, winning a National Championship in his senior season last collegiate season. Personally, I was a fan of the pick, it made sense, as he fit the team culturally and game-wise, and he is a hard worker.
Now, with the 2022-23 NBA season starting in a few months, we have to think, what would a GOOD season for Ochai Agbaji be? Not unrealistic, I’m not expecting him to win Rookie of the Year, something reasonable and realistic. However, before I make my ideas on a good season for him, I’d like to mention that he has a lot of players that play a similar position.
Collin Sexton, if he returns, as he’s currently a restricted free agent and both sides seem a ways away on potential new contract talks, and the likes of Caris LeVert, Isaac Okoro and others feasibly factor in. He has a lot of competition when it comes to the wing position.
With that out of the way, here are my ideas on what a successful rookie season would look like for Agbaji.
Shooting 37% or better from 3/being reliable on catch-and-shoots would be key, and just generally, him proving to be an impact shooter would be a win if the opportunities arise.
In college last season, Agbaji shot 40.7% from 3 on 6.5 attempts per night, which is very good. However, the college 3-point line is a bit shorter than the NBA 3-point line, meaning he’s going to have to shoot a bit further than normal to get those 3 points, which might mean a dip in his percentage from deep. That is why I think a good percentage for him will be around 37%, which is still a very respectable number, even more so for a rookie.
Last season, the Cavs shot 35.5% from 3, which was dead middle of the NBA last season, ranking 15th. This stat might be a big factor on why the Cavs drafted Agbaji, and to be honest, with the modern NBA, spacing is key to winning, and Agbaji will bring that. They also only attempted the 22nd most 3-pointers last season, which isn’t terrible, but attempting more is not necessarily a bad thing, either.
According to Synergy Sports, Agbaji averaged 1.27 points per catch-and-shoot jump shot attempts as a senior, which ranked in the 94th percentile. As an off-ball guard, catch-and-shoot opportunities are one of the most taken shots, and him being an impact shooter in his chances would indicate he was well worth the draft selection. Darius Garland is known in the NBA as one of the best playmakers, averaging 8.6 assists last season, making the All-Star team as well, so look for Agbaji to be a target for him.
Like I mentioned previously, the Cavs didn’t rank as well as they probably would’ve liked in the 3-point percentage category. With Agbaji on the team now, maybe they’ll be ranked better in that statistic next season.
Like I said, I really liked the draft pick of Agbaji, and I am excited to see what he can bring to the table for the Cavs, especially as a shooting presence.
From there, Agbaji being a solid defender would help the Cavs too, and that’s something I’ll be paying close attention to in his first year.
Stats may not show it, but Agbaji is a solid wing defender. According to the NBA Draft Combine measurements, Agbaji’s wingspan is 6’10.25,” and considering he is only 6’5,” that is a meaningful plus wingspan.
Like I mentioned earlier, he has been in college for 4 full seasons, meaning, in theory, that he has a better basketball IQ than some one-and-done prospects. In my opinion, that statement is correct. And watching his activity level and positioning at Kansas, he seems like a smart defender, and knows where to be and how to properly defend his opponent.
He only averaged 0.9 steals per game last season, which is alright, but it could be better. But, steals aren’t everything when it comes to defense. Look at players like Isaac Okoro. He only averaged 0.9 steals per game in his one college season at Auburn, and he’s still a solid defender. In fact, even in the NBA, he’s never averaged over 1 steal per game in his career, which is fine.
Next. 3 lineups the Cavs can deploy with Agbaji. dark
So, as for next season, if Agbaji can find ways to help the Cavaliers in the areas we specified here, feasibly in rotational stretches, that’d make for a successful rookie campaign to me.