Pass or Pay on new contract extensions for 3 Cavs players

Pass or Pay on new contract extensions for 3 Cavs: Kevin Love

Kevin Love has been one of the most overpaid players in the league for the past few seasons. Injuries and a waning desire to play hard on bad teams eroded his impact significantly, and he made $30 million per season or more for multiple seasons while barely providing the Cavs much of anything on the court.

Last season was different. Whether head coach J.B. Bickerstaff got through to him, old teammate Ricky Rubio reinvigorated him or getting kicked off the Team USA squad woke him up, Love was all-in last year. He came off the bench as probably the Cavs’ second-best shooter behind Darius Garland, forming instant chemistry with Rubio and Cedi Osman. He never once agitated about his role or his playing time, and his efficiency was so good that he finished second in the voting for the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year Award.

That’s the context for any extension negotiations with Love. He heads into next season in the final year of his previous extension, in line to make $28.94 million this year. He will turn 34 years old before the start of the season, meaning any extension will carry him into his late 30s. Do the Cavs have a discussion about keeping him around?

Stephen Noh of Sporting News put together a player evaluation metric that is easy to use. He estimated each win a player provides as worth $3.46 million, and according to one all-in-one tool, Estimated Plus-Minus, Love generated 5.5 wins last season. That math would suggest Love was worth around $19 million last season, less than the $31 million or so that he made but not the most egregious gap in the league.

Moving forward, Love’s age and injury history suggest last season was something of a high-water mark. What if the Cavs offered an extension for three-years, $45 million, with the final season guaranteed for just five million? Love has made a place for himself in Cleveland, and it’s very possible he suffers an injury this season that greatly reduces his value when he hits the open market. He may very well be willing to ink such a deal now for the security rather than wait for next summer.

Would the Cavs do it? It’s certainly possible; they value Love’s role on the team now, shooting ages exceptionally well and the deal would be good value. That being said, the downside to waiting until the summer is relatively slim for the Cavs, and that would keep their cap flexibility intact heading into the offseason. If no major free agents pan out, they could likely bring back Love at a similar number.

Pass or Pay? Pass…but at the right number they could Pay