NBA Mock Draft 4.0: Picks for the entire first round

With Paolo Banchero surprisingly going off the board first overall, the Oklahoma City Thunder face a more difficult decision. If Jabari Smith Jr. or Chet Holmgren go first overall, the Thunder will easily just take the other; they have on-ball shot creators and playmakers, and they have multiple guards in place, so Banchero and Jaden Ivey aren’t likely to be in the mix at No. 2. Barring a wildly divergent draft evaluation from the Thunder, they will walk away with either Smith or Holmgren.

Here they have to decide between the two. Both would step in immediately as starters and fill areas of need, as this Thunder team has no reliable bigs. The pick here is Holmgren, but it could certainly go either way. He immediately brings rim protection and rebounding and spaces the floor on offense, opening space for this team’s talented perimeter players. It’s a slam dunk for the Thunder who get another elite building block for the future.

It’s possible that the Houston Rockets take Jaden Ivey or even Shaedon Sharpe at No. 3; Jalen Green is their only surefire starter of the future. Even so, the defensive fit of Ivey and Green seems difficult, and they have a need for two-way play in the frontcourt, where their top players are either all-offense (Alperen Sengun), all-defense (Usman Garuba, Kenyon Martin Jr.) or unhappy (Christian Wood).

That makes Jabari Smith Jr. a perfect fit at No. 3. It’s highly unlikely he will fall here, and Paolo Banchero or Chet Holmgren would both be great fits too, but the way this mock draft shakes out each of the top three teams not only takes one of the top-three prospects, but they also get a seamless fit for their roster. Smith is a force on offense and defense and will help the Rockets in a significant way.