Mock Draft 3.0: NBA Draft comes into focus with lottery set

The draft starts with the first overall pick, not just literally but also philosophically. This year’s draft has no consensus top prospect, neither in the “Anthony Davis obvious top pick” or last year’s “Cade Cunningham is almost certainly going first.” It’s not because there are no good players (hello there 2013) but rather there is a top tier of bigs that teams are undecided on who they like the most.

It would not be surprising to see the Orlando Magic take Chet Holmgren here, as he fits their M.O. as a lanky athlete with difference-making defensive potential. It could also make sense to take Paolo Banchero to give their offense a top-tier shot creator. Neither option would be very surprising.

In the end, though, Jabari Smith Jr. looks like the player with the best chance to go No. 1 overall. With Jonathan Isaac’s future career in doubt the Magic can slot Smith in as their power forward between Wendell Carter Jr. at center and last year’s lottery pick Franz Wagner at small forward. When picking first overall fit doesn’t really matter, but it can be a tie-breaker of sorts against two (or three) similarly-valued prospects.

Smith is a knockdown shooter, a skill the Magic desperately need, and he has a well-rounded offensive game already even as a 6-10″ forward. He is also a difference-maker on defense, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Magic deploy a similar defensive scheme to what the Cleveland Cavaliers did this past season, with three similarly-sized frontcourt players able to switch matchups between themselves.

Smith is a high-level talent and an excellent fit with the Magic as the first overall pick.