NBA Draft Big Board 1.0: Three players in the top tier

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Johnny Davis, Wisconsin Badgers. Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images /

NBA Draft Big Board 1.0: Tier 4

11. Jeremy Sochan, Forward, Baylor

This draft’s version of the “big wing who can’t shoot” is Jeremy Sochan, who at 6’9″ is one of the draft’s best defenders. He rebounds, passes and finishes extremely well. The problem for taking Sochan too high is his complete lack of a shot, either from the perimeter, mid-range, post or free-throw line. He isn’t going to create his own shot; that makes him a poor fit on a team where he needs to score, but a ceiling-raising prospect on a team that just needs him to do the “glue” things. Think of Aaron Gordon in Orlando vs in Denver; Sochan needs to find his Denver to be fully realized.

12. Ochai Agbaji, Wing, Kansas

The NCAA Tournament Final Four Most Outstanding Player (say that five times fast), Ochai Agbaji developed from a defensive role player to a 3-and-D prospect to the offensive engine of last year’s Kansas team. His shooting was streaky year-to-year and even game-to-game in college, but if he can consolidate his development there he projects as an excellent high-end role player. If the shot deserts him he could struggle to find his place, which makes him a risky lottery pick.

13. Mark Williams, Big, Duke

Mark Williams is unlikely to develop a 3-point shot, or unleash a bag of tricks in the post. Williams is the ultimate role player on offense, setting hard screens and stretching a defense vertically with his athleticism and finishing ability. Defensively he is perhaps this draft’s best rim protector, with a massive wingspan and excellent instincts. At worst he is a rotation center for a long time; at best he is Jarrett Allen, who just made an All-Star Game.

14. Jalen Duran, Big, Memphis

Jalen Duran was once thought to be an elite defensive center with the offensive skillset to be something of a hub on that end; then his freshman season happened, and both ends of the court were eroded somewhat. He came through as a shot-blocker, absolutely destroying opponents who tried to score inside. Yet out on the floor he was somewhat slow-footed, he got lost easily and he was quick to foul. On offense he was an elite finisher, similar to Williams, but struggled when asked to do more. He is not Joel Embiid; the question is whether he is Robert Williams or JaVale McGee.

15. Johnny Davis, Guard, Wisconsin

This is incredibly low to have one of the best scorers in college basketball last season, but there are some glaring warts to Johnny Davis’s NBA profile. The good: Davis is an excellent tough shot-maker, he rebounds well for his size (6’5″) and played hard on defense. The bad: Davis’s lack of athleticism held him back from being a true stopper on defense, and that was against Big 10 guards. The bigger flaw is he was a wildly inefficient scorer, putting up stats on volume. The NBA eats alive middling athletes who can’t gain an advantage and just try to score over good defense. Davis could surprise again and become a great NBA scorer…but there is a lot stacked against him.