NBA Draft Big Board 1.0: Tier 1
1. Chet Holmgren, Big, Gonzaga
Statistically, Chet Holmgren looks to be everything you could want in a player, a big man with elite rim protection and a weaponized 3-point shot. There is an outcome where Holmgren is Rudy Gobert defensively and Dirk Nowitzki on offense; that’s obviously a best-case scenario for Holmgren, but the foundational skill set is there. The big concern is his rail-thin body, an NBA frame the league literally has never seen succeed.
2. Paolo Banchero, Forward, Duke
The draft’s best isolation scorer also happens to be 6’10” and weighs 250 pounds, or roughly 55 pounds more than Holmgren. He has an advanced bag of scoring skills, boasts a tight handle for such a tall player, and against elite defenses in the NCAA Tournament showed he can find his shot against anyone. Will he develop into a knockdown perimeter shooter? Could his good passing turn into great passing, enough to make him the centerpiece of a good NBA offense? Defensively will he hurt or help his team? These questions are present, but they are all pieces of an already impressive puzzle.
3. Jabari Smith, Forward, Auburn
There was a point during the season when Jabari Smith was No. 1 on the Big Board, and he could absolutely regain that spot over the next two months leading into the draft. He has a versatile and accurate shot that, at 6’10”, is nigh unblockable. He has a high motor, is solid defensively and can generate some offense himself. Yet what was clear among Auburn’s high-profile losses was that Smith can be taken out of a game if his teammates can’t get him the ball in advantageous situations, and he lacks the scoring “bag of tricks” of a guy like Banchero to overcome that. That ultimately makes him a somewhat dependent player, at least right now, so he slides down to No. 3.