Mock Draft 1.0: First look at projecting the draft lottery

Ochai Agbaji is by far the oldest player in contention for a Top-10 pick, and that age could very well land him outside the lottery entirely. Here he sneaks in at No. 14, the final player taken in the lottery, by the Cleveland Cavaliers. The senior member of the Kansas Jayhawks will be 22 on draft night.

His age is a muddying factor, not a disqualifying one, because of how much growth he showed this season as he developed into a National Player of the Year candidate. Agbaji shot 41.1 percent from deep on a heavy volume, much of it self-created, and averaged 19.8 points per game for one of the best teams in the nation. Agbaji capped off the year with a national championship and the NCAA FInal Four Most Outstanding Player award.

Agbaji is a two-way wing, a scoring threat who leverages his shot to cut inside for open looks at the rim. He is a solid ball-handler, if not a superb one, but his playmaking is shaky at best. On top of that, his defense was elite earlier in his college career but came and went when his offensive load increased. He profiles as a hyper-talented two-way role player on a team that has other top offensive options to carry the team.

That’s exactly the situation in Cleveland, which has an All-Star point guard and center and a two-way whizkid at the 4 but desperately needs wings. Agbaji can be the 2-guard Isaac Okoro is not, with solid defense and excellent shooting/scoring on the wing.

The order of the teams set at the draft lottery will determine who goes at the top, and things will trickle down from there. This draft lacks can’t-miss superstar talent, which flattens things out and means players have a range of “8-25” because there is no telling where they will go. This is one possible outcome for the top 14 teams in the 2022 NBA Draft.