82.8 percent. With less than four minutes left in the third quarter, after building a huge lead, losing most of it, then gaining it back, the Cleveland Cavaliers had a win expectancy of 82.8 percent in their Play-In Tournament game against the Atlanta Hawks. All the Cavs had to do was close things out.
They did not, watching as Trae Young proved himself to be the best player in the game, dropping 32 points in the second half to lead the Hawks to a 107 – 101 victory. To be so close to the playoffs, to at least four more games of postseason experience for this bright youg core, is gut-wrenching for the team and its fans. Yet, thankfully, there is a silver lining to the play-in loss.
The Cavs suffered a gut-wrenching loss to the Hawks on Friday to miss out on the playoffs. Thankfully there is a silver lining for the team’s future.
By losing to the Hawks, the Cavs officially miss the playoffs. For the purposes of the NBA Draft, this slots them in with the 14th-best record in the league among all teams to miss the playoffs. They will be the “last” team in the NBA Draft Lottery, with the 14-best odds to leap up into the Top-4. Their draft pick is overwhelmingly likely to slot in at 14th.
For those who don’t follow along with draft pick protections, the Cavs traded their 2022 first-round pick to the Indiana Pacers in the Caris LeVert trade…and protected it 1-14. That means that if the Cavs’ pick falls in the first 14 picks of the draft – as it is now guaranteed to do – they keep the pick, and the obligation rolls forward to next season. The Cavs now owe the Indiana Pacers their 2023 first-round pick, protected 1-14; if they somehow miss the postseason again next year, that pick converts to a 2025 second-round pick.
If the Cavs had won on Friday, they would have made it into the playoffs for the first time since 2018, and the first time without LeBron James since 1998. Yet they also would have given up their pick, likely 16th, sacrificing the ability to add to this core now in order to gain postseason experience.
It’s your call which of the two would have been more beneficial. Last year’s Memphis Grizzlies were the “last team” into the playoffs and gained postseason experience that helped propel them this season; on the other hand, the Golden State Warriors missed out by losing that second play-in game, retained their draft pick (also No. 14) and drafted a player in Moses Moody who looks like a long-term piece of the young core they are building.
The Cavs have an incredible trio of players to build on. Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are young and dynamic, and are on a trajectory that should lead to annual contention. Yet what the Cavs don’t have is a surefire wing to join that core. Collin Sexton is six feet tall and a restricted free agent coming off of a major knee injury; Lauri Markkanen is seven-feet tall. Caris LeVery was a roller coaster of playmaking and inefficiency since joining the Cavs. Isaac Okoro has a long ways to go as an offensive player.
There are many draft analysts who are down on the 2022 NBA Draft, and there is no question it looks shaky when compared to the amazing production and upside already from the 2021 class. Yet what this year’s draft class does have in droves are wings; as many as 20 or so players likely to go in the first round will be options at the 2 or 3, exactly where the Cavs need help. Names such as Tari Eason, Bennedict Mathurin, Ochai Agbaji and Jeremy Sochan could all be available at No. 14.
It won’t take away the sting of losing two consecutive play-in games, or the bitter taste in the Cavs’ mouth of an injury-fueled collapse. Yet it does represent an opportunity to add another cost-controlled player to this group of young up-and-comers, and if they nail the pick, they will have a homegrown quartet you can compare to anyone in the league.
Perhaps the silver lining only matters to the front office, or to the fans, but hopefully it takes away some of the sting. The Cavs now turn their attention to the offseason, one they will approach not as downtrodden bottom-feeders but inevitable rising stars, a team ready to add the pieces it will need to start competing in the Eastern Conference very, very soon. This lottery pick will help them do just that.