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Breaking down the Cavs’ play-in odds for each seed

By Josh Cornelissen

Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks and Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers. Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks and Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers. Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images /
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Rajon Rondo, Philadelphia 76ers. Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images /

Breaking down the Cavs’ play-in odds: Eight vs Nine

If the Cavs lose to the Nets Friday, which is the most likely outcome, they will be in line to fall below the Nets to eighth of ninth. Collectively they have a 55 percent chance of falling to one of these two seeds, making their path to the top-8 even murkier.

The easiest way to get to eighth is to beat the Nets on Friday, lose to the Bucks and have the Hawks win out. With the Miami Heat all but locked into the top seed they could rest many of their veterans against the Hawks on Friday, clearing a path for the scorching-hot Trae Young to lead the Hawks to the seventh seed.

That being said, in their current state there is little reason to think the Cavs will beat the Nets on Friday. If they lose to the Nets but beat a potentially-resting Milwaukee team on Sunday, then a 1-1 weekend from the Hawks would also secure eighth. That would mean two consecutive games where the Cavs would be win-and-in, a better spot than ninth.

Falling to ninth happens with a Nets loss and Hawks sweep of their final two games, or the more likely 0-2 finish from the Cavs and the Hawks winning at least one game. This locks the Cavs into ninth, assuming the Hornets do not win out.