It has not been a great month or so for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Losing the elite rim protection of Jarrett Allen for an extended stretch, and the do-it-all defensive exuberance of Evan Mobley for the past half-dozen, have completely amputated the legs of their once-great defense.
With that defensive collapse has come a drop down the standings, as the Cavs have struggled to get stops against elite teams and tanking teams alike. They most recently lost to the last-place Orlando Magic, the ugly capstone to an 8-16 slide, beginning just prior to the All-Star Break, that saw the Cavs go from third place in the Eastern Conference down to seventh.
Per FiveThirtyEight’s Elo forecast, their odds of making the playoffs on February 10th were 98 percent, and they had a projected record of 51-31. Now sitting at 43-37, the Cavs winning out would get them to just 45 wins. Their playoff odds have plummeted to 53 percent, and they are locked into the play-in tournament.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are locked into the play-in tournament. What are the odds they finish in each of the four spots at the end of the season?
With just a few days to go, the four East play-in teams are set. Cleveland, the Brooklyn Nets, the Atlanta Hawks and the Charlotte Hornets will make up the four-team tournament in some configuration. The Cavs can still finish anywhere in the 7-10 range and play any of those teams. What are the odds the Cavs will fall into each slot, and what should fans be watching for over these final two games?