The timing of things matters. If the Cleveland Cavaliers had started slowly, then saw their young players catch fire midway through the season and just now had pushed up to a tie for sixth-place in the Eastern Conference, fans would be through the moon for the team’s success just one season after winning 22 games. They have already guaranteed they won’t have a losing season, and it’s likely they will double their wins of a season ago. A strong end to the season would have left things on a high note of hope.
Yet that’s not how things turned out, as instead, the Cavs surprised early, building up to a strong position within the conference before injuries and mild regression pulled them back down to earth. After losing two straight games, including a crucial game Thursday night against the Toronto Raptors, they are now tied for sixth-place and on the precipice of the play-in game.
A loss to the Toronto Raptors puts the play-in game that much closer, which means the path to missing the NBA playoffs is even wider
Two seasons ago the NBA finished its season in a bubble in Orlando, FL to ensure a champion was crowned despite the pandemic. One of the changes they implemented was a “play-in” game for eighth place; Memphis and Portland played for the rights to make the postseason in the West. That change was codified last year, and since has seemed to be wildly successful in increasing late-season intrigue and suppressing the number of teams who sit large swaths of players down the stretch.
What that means is that the teams that finish from 7-10 in each conference will have one or two games to decide if they make the “final eight” playoff teams. Finishing sixth or higher guarantees a spot in the best-of-seven playoffs; that’s now the spot to aim for.
For a few weeks that’s where the Cavs have been, but now their spot is in jeopardy as seventh-place Toronto is now tied with Cleveland in the standings, one game back of the fifth-place Chicago Bulls. Finish behind both, and it’s a trip to the play-in game and the very real possibility of missing the playoffs altogether.
Maintaining their spot will not be easy. All-Star center Jarrett Allen has missed nine-straight games with a fractured finger, a stretch where the Cavs have gone just 4-5 while the Raptors have gone 6-3 to close the gap. Less discussed has been the knee injury to Dean Wade which has kept the versatile forward out of the lineup as well, limiting their options to defend opposing combo forwards. LeBron James and Pascal Siakam carved the Cavs’ defense up in recent games.
Currently FiveThirtyEight projects the Cavs to finish seventh in the Eastern Conference, one game behind the Chicago Bulls and two games behind the Toronto Raptors (and just one game ahead of the Brooklyn Nets). Finishing seventh would settle them into the play-in game, likely lining up a matchup with the Nets.
Brooklyn would be favored in that game with or without Ben Simmons in the lineup, and both Kevin Durant and old friend Kyrie Irving are lighting up scoreboards right now as the Nets right the ship. Lose to the Nets and it means a second play-in game against the Atlanta Hawks or Charlotte Hornets, two teams that have beaten the Cavs this season behind stellar guard play.
The Cavs are better than the Hawks (who have valuable playoff experience from their run to the Conference Finals a season ago) and Hornets, but they could easily lose to them in a one-game scenario. Fall there and it’s a trip to the lottery and another year without the playoffs. This team has gone 25 years without making the playoffs without LeBron James on the team.
There is still plenty of time to right the ship. The Cavs’ last nine games include two games against the Orlando Magic, and their final game of the season against the Milwaukee Bucks could see the defending champs resting players if their seed is all wrapped up.
Even if the Raptors finish strong, the Chicago Bulls are only one game up on the Cavs and are floundering a bit themselves as of late. With a game Saturday at home against the Bulls, Cleveland could right the ship and put themselves in position to shove the Bulls down into the play-in tournament. A win Saturday also guarantees the tie-breaker over both the Raptors and the Bulls.
It’s not a disappointment if the Cavs miss the playoffs; they will retain their first-round pick and can look to add a wing in the draft to their young core. Yet that silver lining will still feel like a disappointment given their strong start. However this season ends, the foundation is in place in Cleveland for a bright future.