3 reasons the Cavs could still miss the NBA playoffs
3 reasons the Cavs could still miss the NBA playoffs: High-variance of the play-in
The NBA instituted a new concept for the postseason a few seasons ago, a play-in tournament that widens the funnel for potential teams to get into the playoff bracket. In the NBA Bubble in 2020 it meant the 9th-place team got to play the 8th-place team for the final spot; last season that was expanded to a short tournament between teams 7-10 in each conference, a format that looks to be in place moving forward.
If the Cavs drop to seventh or below, their chances of missing the playoffs go up significantly. Go 0-2 as either the seventh or eighth seeds, and you miss the playoffs entirely. If you are missing a key player, your opponents get hot or you go cold — just for two games spaced 3 days apart — and it’s all over.
Now, look at which teams the Cavs would likely face in such a scenario. What about the Brooklyn Nets, fully loaded with Kevin Durant, Ben Simmons, Kyrie Irving and a newly-stocked rotation around them. The Toronto Raptors, with their endless supply of jumbo wings and All-Star Fred VanVleet? Even the Charlotte Hornets and Atlanta Hawks offer matchup difficulties with their All-Star guards and versatile frontcourts.
The Cavs should still make the playoffs. They have been a really strong team all season long, and FiveThirtyEight still gives them a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs. Even if they drop to seventh they get two home games and only need to win one. The odds are in their favor.
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Yet the factors we just went over provide the roadmap to such an outcome, for the Cavs’ dream season to end up bittersweet. If Garland’s back injury lingers, or the Nets get to full power soon, or any of a hundred other things happens a certain way, the Cavs could be the odd ones out. Or, you know, they could end up on top when the smoke clears. It’s all possible in a wild Eastern Conference.