3 reasons the Cavs could still miss the NBA playoffs

3 reasons the Cavs could still miss the NBA playoffs: Upside from teams below the Cavs

Since January 1st, the Cleveland Cavaliers are 15-7, the sixth-best record in the league. That’s a major reason why the Cavs have continued to maintain their spot near the top of the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately, they’re not alone in playing well in recent weeks.

The Boston Celtics are on fire, winners of 11 of their last 13 games and 17-7 overall since January 1st. The Philadelphia 76ers are 16-7 since New Years. The Toronto Raptors, currently in seventh place, have won 9-of-11 and are 17-8 since January 1st. The Miami Heat are 15-8 over that stretch.

In fact, everyone in the top 10 of the Eastern Conference is playing well, with the exceptions of the Charlotte Hornets and Brooklyn Nets. The Nets, of course, have more upside to rise up the standings that any other team, with Ben Simmons, a healthy Kevin Durant and the other “half” of Kyrie Irving all expected to return in the coming weeks.

There is no safety net because of the compressed standings, and there are a lot of teams who can pass or distance themselves from the Cavs relatively easily. The Celtics, Raptors and Nets could all climb past the Cavs without any real slippage from Cleveland. The East is 10-deep with good teams, almost all of which should continue to play well down the stretch.

Despite floating behind the Cavs in the standings all season, the Celtics are now expected to pass the Cavs and finish 49-33, per FiveThirtyEight’s model. The Toronto Raptors are projected to finish two games behind the Cavs at 46-36, which is all that would remain between the Cavs and the play-in tournament. If Garland’s back injury lingers, or another key piece misses even a week or two, that could be enough to drop Cleveland to seventh of below.