The Cleveland Cavaliers are off to their strongest start since LeBron James was in town, with a 20-14 record and the Eastern Conference’s best net rating. As many as three players are generating All-Star buzz, and the future continues to brighten for their young core.
A key part of that strong start has been the play of Ricky Rubio, acquired for a song this offseason. He is shooting at career rates, running the offense and closing most games for this team. Unfortunately for the pending free agent and for the Cavs, Rubio is now out for the season with a torn ACL.
Losing Ricky Rubio for the season is a blow, but it’s not a deadly one. Here’s why despondent Cleveland fans can keep their hopes for the Cavs high.
Cleveland fans know they can’t have nice things. It feels like the sky is falling. Across the realm of Cavs fandom this team is being buried. As national media raise a glass to a beloved vet having an excellent year, fans in Ohio are filling up shot glasses that weren’t stored very far away. Everyone is already pivoting to start looking at lottery prospects.
Rubio has certainly been a difference-maker, an on-court and off-court reason for this team making waves and playing well above expectations. He has played behind, with and in place of Darius Garland, and together they have dominated competition:
The Cavaliers have had a +16.1 net efficiency when Ricky Rubio and Darius Garland have shared the floor this season.
— Matt Williams (@StatsWilliams) December 29, 2021
That is the best of any 2-man lineup to play 500 minutes together.
Rubio averaged 13.1 points this season, tied for the most in a season in his career. https://t.co/NR49dpOCDA
Losing Rubio no doubt lowers this team’s ceiling this postseason, and it lowers their floor anytime Garland misses time. They are going to miss him in a significant way, and they will struggle to replace him inside their roster and without.
And yet. This team is really good. Really, really good. Their record is not a fluke, and it has not been driven by one player, no matter how great his hair. At the end of the day he was averaging just 13.1 points per game, good for sixth on the team, coming off the bench to play fewer than 30 minutes per game. The loss of Rubio will hurt the Cavs, but even without him, they are a good team.
The biggest reason this team will continue to be good is their core three players: Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Garland is the reason Rubio is coming off the bench, as he is too good to bench. He is a point guard who can pass, shoot and hit the floater at elite levels; his 7.3 assists per game ranks 10th in the league this season, and he is hitting 2.6 3-pointers per game on 38.4 percent shooting.
Inside we have the big-man pairing of Allen and Mobley, possibly the best such 4-5 pairing in the league (depending on how you categorize LeBron and Anthony Davis). Allen is dominating as a play finisher inside, while Mobley is flashing an array of moves at the rim and further out. Defensively both are elite, with Mobley ranging all across the court and Allen walling off the paint.
When those three players share the court, the Cavs are a whopping +11.5 points per 100 possessions (per Cleaning the Glass), one of the best-such 3-man combinations in the league. Cleveland’s preferred starting lineup (those three plus Isaac Okoro and Lauri Markkanen) is +13.9 points per 100 possessions across 280 minutes.
Rubio is certainly an important part of many of the combinations that do so well for this team, but even with Rubio off the court those three are a cumulative +5.6 in 623 minutes. All Cleveland lineups without Rubio are +4.1. This team is worse without Rubio, but they aren’t bad without him.
That’s the difference that many fans and media personalities are struggling with. For a team like Cleveland to make such a dramatic leap forward, it must mean two things. First, that their performance is fluky, and that they will fall back to earth. Second, that every single player must be vital to maintaining this house of cards, and losing one will make it all collapse.
Yet that wasn’t the case when Collin Sexton went down. The Cavs inserted Isaac Okoro into the starting lineup, unleashed sharpshooting Cedi Osman and kept on rolling. This time around it will be harder to find an obvious replacement for Rubio, but they aren’t going to completely fall apart without Rubio.
The roster should be emerging from the haze of Omicron outbreaks within the next week or so, and once they do so they will have a lot of talented players to lean on. Kevin Pangos, RJ Nembhard or some player not on the roster will be called upon to step up, but they will be stepping into a strong ecosystem finding success, not the broken shell of a would-be upstart.
The Cavs have the league’s easiest schedule moving forward, and they won’t miss Rubio against the dregs of the league. While the East is certainly deep and competitive, this team is still on track to make the playoffs without LeBron James for the first time in 23 years.
Even with Rubio this team wasn’t going to contend for a title. It’s too early in the life cycle of their young stars. Whether they find another backup behind Garland or bring Rubio back next season, this team is building for a future of contention, not a push this year.
Yet that future-view doesn’t mean this season is gone. They are going to continue playing well, because their success is too high and all-encompassing for one backup point guard to ruin it. Rubio will be missed, but he will not take this team’s success with him.
Chin-up, Cleveland fans. Your team is still talented, still exciting, and still going to make waves in the Eastern Conference this year. It’s just that Ricky Rubio will now be cheering from the sidelines along with you.