1 stud and 1 dud from Cavs pummeling of Mavericks
1 dud from Cavs pummeling of Mavs: Vegas oddsmakers
Going into last night’s game, the Dallas Mavericks were 10-8, with a -1.6 net rating (i.e. they were being outscored on the season by an average of 1.6 points per 100 possessions). Net rating is usually a more solid indicator of a team’s true quality than pure record, as teams that win big but lose close are better than teams that win close but lose big. The Mavericks all season have been in the second category.
Going into last night’s game, the Cleveland Cavaliers were 10-10 with a +0.2 net rating despite a tower of injuries. They played tough opponents close to the end even in losses, and they had a compelling list of victories. By any metric other than preseason expectations or (just barely) current record, the Cavs looked like the better team.
Then why were the Mavericks favored by SEVEN POINTS last night? Even factoring in home court advantage that suggested that the Mavericks were a great team facing a mediocre one. That was simply not the case, which looked obvious going in and now looks inexplicable with the Cavs absolutely destroying the Mavericks.
I called the oddsmakers out in the preview of the game, predicting a Cavaliers victory. The Cavaliers have proven themselves able to hang with and beat anyone, especially at something close to full strength. It’s time for Vegas, the media and the general public to adjust their preseason expectations and recognize that the Cleveland Cavaliers are a good team. Not a great one, and maybe not even a good enough one to make the playoffs in a loaded East. But they are 14th in the league in net rating, 10th in SRS (net rating balanced with strength of opponent) and are one game out of sixth place in the East. They had the better player at four positions last night and at head coach. Put some respect on their name!
The Cavs notched a great win Monday night, taking down an opponent many view as a contender in the West. They slowed an MVP candidate and flummoxed his teammates, and while help came from everywhere, they especially beat Dallas down with their towering pair of newly-signed bigs playing inside and out. Next up: Miami.