Cavs: What are the odds for a reunion with Kyrie Irving?

The Cleveland Cavaliers have to be on the lookout for talent wherever it presents itself. The Cavs are not a marquee free agent destination, nor even a mid-tier one. They are bottom of the destination rankings, and therefore to acquire talent they need to draft it, trade for it or hope it was born in a nearby suburb.

Trade is the mechanism the Cavs used to add a couple of key players on their team. When Jarrett Allen became available during the James Harden trade event, Cleveland hopped in and made a successful bid for the solid center. This offseason the league passed Lauri Markkanen by, marking an opportunity for the Cavs to swoop in and perform a sign-and-trade.

Building through the draft is another great way to grow a team, and the Cavs have gone down that road with four Top-10 selections in the last four years. Yet that approach is hit-or-miss and it takes time; a trade can accelerate a timetable much faster.

The Cavs have to always be on the lookout for players available via trade. What are the odds Kyrie Irving can return via trade?

A talented player just might become available over on the coast, and no I’m not talking about Ben Simmons. Or Bradley Beal. The player in question is Kyrie Irving, who has dominated headlines the last few weeks as he and the Brooklyn Nets grapple over Irving’s refusal to get a COVID-19 vaccinne.

In New York, for a resident professional athlete to play in a sporting event, they must show proof of having received at least one shot of the vaccine. This is a mandate mirrored in other large, coastal cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles. There are no exceptions and no signs of the law changing; that means for Irving and every other player on the Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks.

With the season less than a week away, Kyrie Irving has not been vaccinated and has shown no indications that he will. While he is far from the only unvaccinated player in the league, he is certainly in the minority, with 96 percent of players currently vaccinated.

Andrew Wiggins faced a similar situation earlier this month. The Golden State Warriors play their home games in San Francisco, and a similar vaccine mandate meant Wiggins could not play in home games without getting the vaccine. Although reluctant, Wiggins elected to get the vaccine and will be eligible by the Warriors’ first home game.

A major motivating factor is money. The NBA’s stance is that players who miss games because of a local vaccine mandate will forfeit their game checks for that contest. The NBA Players’ Association will push back on that declaration, but it seems very likely to be the case. With Wiggins taking the vaccine, Irving represents the only test case available at the moment.

The Nets faced a season where one of their three stars was unavailable for at least half of the entire season. This week they decided such a disjointed situation was not tenable, and released a statement that Irving would be ineligible to play for the team at all until he is eligible to play in all games.

Hours later, The Athletic reported that Irving was choosing not to get the vaccine for social, not personal, reasons. Irving allegedly wanted to give a voice to those scared of losing their job if they don’t acquiesce to a vaccine mandate. He confirmed as much himself on social media Wednesday night.

This isn’t the piece to discuss whether Irving is right to not get the COVID-19 vaccine, or even whether his claim that one of the most vocal minorities in the country — those unwilling to get the vaccine — need someone to speak up for them (whoops, I guess I did a little bit). The question is how does this situation resolve?

Irving could find a way to save face, get the vaccine and then report back to the Nets. Presumably at that point he would be welcomed back into the fold and continue playing games for the league’s championship favorites. New York could lift its vaccine mandate, although that will likely require significant progress towards eliminating public risk from the virus, which at the very least is a long ways off. Irving could also sit out the entire season.

The final option is trading Irving to a team without such a vaccine requirement. Only five NBA teams seem to be based in a city with this type of mandate currently. Could one of the other 25 teams trade for Irving? He would be eligible for their home games, as well as every road game – visiting players are not required to be vaccinated to play in New York or San Francisco. That is why players like Bradley Beal and Jonathan Isaac aren’t in the midst of controversy like Irving is creating (although he does have a special gift for it).

If the Nets do put Irving on the market, it would need to be with the consent of Kevin Durant, who came to the Nets as part of a “package deal” with Irving. If that comes, and Irving becomes available in trade conversations, should the Cavs pick up the phone? Would they?

Irving was, of course, drafting by the Cavaliers in 2011, going first overall out of Duke University. He won Rookie of the Year, averaging 18.5 points and 5.4 assists in his first season, and by his second season was an All-Star. Later when LeBron James and Kevin Love came to town he was a key piece of the Cavs’ only title in franchise history, hitting the biggest single shot in Cleveland sports history to seal the Game 7 victory.

Two seasons later Irving was gone, forcing his way out when he no longer wanted to play in the shadow of LeBron James. That’s no easy place to be, but no other co-star has tried to do the same; he is the only in-his-prime superstar teammate of LeBron’s to choose not to play with him. He spent two mercurial seasons in Boston before landing with the Nets in 2019.

Irving would immediately inject this roster with star power, something they don’t have. There are no current All-Star players, just the fragile remnant of Kevin Love and a bunch of up-and-coming maybes. Those maybes are the future, and a couple of them could become the level of star that Irving is now, but no one is there now.

First, should the Cavs trade for Irving? Should they send Ricky Rubio, Collin Sexton, Cedi Osman and a first-round pick to the Nets for Irving? It’s tempting, as it would instantly raise their ceiling and floor and accelerate their timetable. Brooklyn might say no, but that’s at least a reasonable offer to make.

I don’t think it’s bad value for Irving, and freed from the shadow of James he might be amenable to playing in Cleveland. Even so, Irving will be 30 by the end of the season and has battled numerous injuries. He also has given no indication he would play for another team, nor is there any guarantee he wouldn’t come up with another reason to walk away from playing for weeks or longer.

Unreliable players are usually those who fade in big moments. That’s not Irving – he plays brilliantly under the bright lights of playoff basketball. He just might not be in uniform when that game begins because of his latest cause he has adopted. This isn’t meant to bash the guy on a wholistic level – he seems to do a lot of excellent charity work, and without him Cleveland probably doesn’t have a title. Yet he cannot be counted on to be available to play basketball games, which has to be a factor when a team considers bringing him in.

Add in the fact that Kyrie Irving is only under contract for one more season before he can exercise a player option and become a free agent. If the Cavs did trade for him, he could leave after one year. That’s not the type of situation the Cavs can put themselves in by training away a first-round pick and a player like Sexton. They should not trade for him.

But would they? If Irving did become available, and the above package or something similar would get it done, would the Cavs pull the trigger? Probably not…but maybe. The overall scenario has odds well below one percent of even happening, of the Cavs being one thumbs up away from adding Irving. Yet if that situation opens up, the Cavs will surely be tempted.

In the end, this entire situation is insane to contemplate. Who would have guessed two years ago that the Brooklyn Nets would be forcing star point guard Kyrie Irving to sit for the entire season due to not getting the vaccine for a global pandemic, instead relying on their other two superstar players, and that Irving would have a tepid trade market because this was the third time he chose not to be available to the Nets for basketball games for completely non-injury reasons.

The Cavs shouldn’t trade for Irving, and most likely they won’t. Is there a sliver of a chance that a reunion comes together? Sure, but it’s basically infinetesimal. More likely it will be something for the entire league to watch: how does this end, and has Irving played his last game for the Brooklyn Nets?

In Cleveland there is another talented point guard stepping into his own, and a young core putting together exciting highlights in preseason and ready to grow together. Irving and all of the drama surrounding him is states away, while the Cavs are drama free and ready to start the season.