Cavs: How Dylan Windler can become a starter in 2021-22

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a problem. It’s a common problem in today’s NBA, where the need around the league for this specific asset far outstrips the demand. It’s a problem the Cavs have had for two decades, and has only ever been solved by one person.

The Cavs don’t have any good two-way small forwards on the roster. They haven’t had one in any season where the answer wasn’t “LeBron James” for a very long time. Andrew Wiggins might have qualified as the answer, but the Cavs traded him to Minnesota to receive Kevin Love. The fact that Wiggins could have been the answer is depressing enough. The answer otherwise might have to be Jamario Moon, or an end-of-career Richard Jefferson in 2015-16.

The Cavs hoped to address the problem in last year’s draft, coming away with the defensive-minded Isaac Okoro. He got as many minutes as he could handle as a rookie, and while he wasn’t a disaster he certainly didn’t communicate that he’s the answer to that problem. He’s undersized to play small forward, his shot looks broken beyond repair and the Cavs will most likely yet again have to look in another direction.

One way to address the problem is to draft a small forward in next year’s draft, but that punts the answer down the road – it may end up being the ultimate solution, but the team has to look to answers in-house too. If it’s not Okoro, who is it?

The Cavs have a problem, a lack of a true difference-maker at small forward. Could Dylan Windler become the starter in 2021-22 and be that answer?

Enter Dylan Windler. Before we examine how he could potentially be the answer to this problem, let’s point out the fact that it’s an incredibly long shot that Windler will become a no-doubt two-way small forward who secures the position for the next decade and competes for All-Star teams. That’s not what we are saying here. But he could provide something the Cavs haven’t had in a long time, some stability at the 3, a player who isn’t a complete minus on one end of the court of the other.

Windler is 25 years old, a four-year player at Belmont before the Cavs drafted him 26th overall in the 2019 NBA Draft. He has good size, standing at 6’6″ with a 6’11” wingspan, is strong for his position and came into the NBA with a lot of admirers.

Then injuries happened, and Windler missed his entire rookie season. Last year he played in just 31, again battling to be healthy. When he did play he wasn’t particularly effective, shooting just 33.8 percent from 3-point range and averaging 3.1 turnovers per 100 possessions.

Why is he a candidate to become a starter, then? Because of what Windler could become, not in a dream scenario called out of a wishing well, but if he simply stays healthy. The potential is there for him to become a reliable player.

Coming out of college, Windler was billed as a knockdown shooter, and indeed he shot 40.6 percent in school and averaged 42.8 percent in his final two seasons. His size allows him to elevate well to shoot, and he has the ability to shoot off-the-catch and by pulling up himself. With a real offseason and a healthy start to the year, it’s reasonable to expect Windler’s shot to regress to his actual shooting ability.

That might be happening already. Windler finally saw minutes prior to garbage time in the Cavs’ third preseason game, and he took full advantage. He shot 4-of-5 from long-range to score 12 points in his 22 minutes of play, and the Cavs outscored the Pacers when he was on the court.

What Windler brings in addition to his shooting upside is a well-rounded game. He was the primary ball-handler as a point forward in college and can serve as a secondary or tertiary ball-handler in most lineups. He is a very tough rebounder, with his 11.7 rebound percentage ranked 14th among players his size or smaller (min 25 games played).

Defensively Windler is not going to make the same impact as Okoro is, but he held up well last season and has the size to at least survive on that end. As he gets healthy and adjusted to the speed of the NBA, it’s not unreasonable to think he could be a significant positive on that end as well.

The Cavs likely feel like they have to play a high-level defender at the 3 given the defensive limitations of Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro. The problem is that in the process they are constricting the floor around those guards by playing Okoro. It’s absolutely possible Okoro starts to show major gains on that end and can become the two-way option this team needs. It’s also possible, if not likely, that he doesn’t.

That’s when the door opens for Windler. A healthy season where Windler’s 3-point shooting becomes a strength, where he rebounds well and fills his role on defense, is one that serves as an audition for a larger role. The better he plays, the more minutes he will earn, and the more Okoro’s spot will become accessible.

Dylan Windler is a really good player, and if his body hangs in there and injuries become a thing of the past, then he can show the Cavs and the league just how good he is. His combination of passing, shooting and defense is a perfect fit for the modern NBA and for this roster, and there is a very real path to the starting lineup for him.