Cavs: Best and worst-case scenarios for Collin Sexton in 2021-22

Cavs: Worst-case scenario for Collin Sexton in 2021-22

Collin Sexton made a big leap last season in scoring due to increased volume more than improved efficiency, and on a team with more mouths to feed that volume begins to erode. After averaging 18.4 shot attempts per game last season he averages 16. The downward trend of his 3-point shooting (it has decreased each year of his career) continues, and he shoots just 36 percent on 3-pointers.

That combination sees his scoring average fall back to earth, and he averages 19.5 points per game for the year. Alongside him in the backcourt Darius Garland instead is the one to take the leap, averaging 22 points and eight assists per game as he becomes one of the league’s most exciting young players.

After staying mostly healthy for the first three seasons of his career Sexton begins to deal with nagging injuries, and misses 15 of the Cavs’ first 41 games. In his stead the backcourt combination of Garland and Ricky Rubio blitzes teams, and the Cavs rip off six wins in a row and overall go 11-4 without Sexton in the lineup.

Sexton’s minutes are even lower when he returns, and he chafes at the reduction in role. Evan Mobley and Garland are now the faces of the team, and he watches as his media requests go the way of his shots and minutes. While he stays a consummate professional when interacting with his teammates, he starts to lose some of that competitive fire; his turnovers go up and his defense becomes even worse.

The Cavs make the decision that Garland is their guard of the future, and they make the decision to move Sexton at the trade deadline rather than pay him in free agency in the summer. He is moved to a team where he will come off the bench, and the Cavs move on to the next chapter without him.

Both of these scenarios are extreme, but neither is out of the realm of possibility. Sexton could continue to grow as a player, as he has done thus far in his career, and prove all of his doubters wrong. There are a number of reasons to be optimistic about his future. On the other hand, there are warning flags that Sexton might not be able to contribute much outside of scoring, and the Cavs could raise their ceiling by finding a more scalable player, provided they can replace his scoring.

This is a very important season for Sexton, as it is for many young players approaching free agency. He wants to be “the guy” in Cleveland, on a max deal, among the league’s highest scoring players. Cleveland wants a player who not only scores points but helps them win playoff games. Best-case? Everyone gets what they want. Worst-case? Disappointment. Let’s all tune in and see what happens.