Cavs: Grading the Lauri Markkanen deal from all angles

Cavs: Grading the Lauri Markkanen deal from all angles – Contract

The Cleveland Cavaliers operated as an over-the-cap team this offseason. They kept all four of their non-guaranteed players, drafted Evan Mobley at No. 3 overall and re-signed restricted free agent center Jarrett Allen to a five-year, $100 million contract that will pay him $20 per season.

As the flurry of free agent signings slowed to a trickle and eventually stopped altogether, Lauri Markkanen was left standing all alone, a player worth eight figures in annual salary but with no suitors to provide it. The mid-level exception amounted to $41 million over four years, starting just south of $10 million per season. That was the most available to him around the league, including from the Cavs.

The most, that is, unless another team could work out a sign-and-trade with the Chicago Bulls. By sending out Larry Nance Jr. and his $11.7 million salary the Cavs were able to bring Markkanen and his $15.58 million starting salary onto the roster.

Overall the deal is for four years and $67 million, although the final year of the deal is only guaranteed for $6 million. The deal lines up with Mobley’s rookie deal, giving the team two “4.5”s who will both likely hit free agency of one kind or the other in 2025.

The low guarantee gives the Cavs flexibility in that final season, especially since the team could be dealing with price increases for Collin Sexton, Darius Garland and then Isaac Okoro that year if all three players are retained.

Paying $16.75 million AAV (average annual value) for a starting power forward is solid value; paying that for a backup is less so, although the right roster construction can handle that for a team’s 6th Man.

Was Markkanen specifically worth this? John Hollinger’s player valuation tool (subscription required) put his value for next season at $11.9 million. That’s not far off from what he actually got, and signing away young restricted free agents often takes an overpay. Going just a few million over his actual worth is a reasonable proposition.

Markkanen had a down year last season in some respects, but he also hit over 40 percent of his 3-pointers. That single skill gets people paid; Duncan Robinson can do little other than shoot and he just signed for $90 million with the Miami Heat.

Markkanen’s AAV of $16.75 million is outside the top-15 at the position, and he is just 23 years old. He isn’t worth that now, but he could get there in a new context with a new developmental staff. This is a lot of money for the Cavs to invest in one position group, with Kevin Love and Evan Mobley under contract for a combined $39.2 million. In a vacuum, it’s reasonable value for a player with a premium skill, and the partial guarantee on Year 4 helps mitigate the disaster potential.

Grade: B