The Cleveland Cavaliers have had a number of high level centers throughout NBA history. Brad Daugherty, Hot Rod Williams, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varajao and Kevin Love have all excelled while locking down the anchor for the Cavs on one end of the court or the other.
This summer the Cavaliers had to decide how to handle the position. Both of their centers, Jarrett Allen and Isaiah Hartenstein were free agents. After drafting big man Evan Mobley, the team had even more pressure to properly evaluate the center market.
Jarrett Allen is inking a new $100 million contract. To evaluate this deal we have to know where Allen stands among the league’s centers.
$100 million is a lot of money for a player, but especially so for a center. The contract will pay Allen an average of $20 million over each of the next five summers. That immediately places Allen in a tie for seventh among all centers in average annual value (AAV).
Is that the right amount of money for Allen? Just 23 years old, the former Texas center should improve. Factors such as Allen’s fit on the team and the Cavs’ other opportunities are a part of evaluating the deal, but the Cavaliers also have to look at the league around them.
Where does Allen rank among the league’s centers? Ranking seventh among center salaries is one thing for a Top 10 center, and another altogether for the 25th-best. Breaking the league’s pivots into tiers, let’s find where Allen falls and what it means for the contract he just signed.
Where does Jarrett Allen rank among the league’s centers? Tier 1 – MVP candidates
The 2020-21 NBA season saw something of a renaissance among centers, with three of the league’s biggest men finishing Top 10 in MVP voting. They took the three All-NBA center spots, and are three of the six centers who will make more than Allen this next season.
Nikola Jokic won the MVP award, the point guard and center for the Denver Nuggets’ offense. He is one of the league’s best post players, can shoot from outside and is one of the league’s best passers as a near-seven-footer.
Joel Embiid was the MVP runner-up and the two-way linchpin for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. He averaged 28.5 points and 10.6 rebounds per game this past season, destroying opposing centers in the post and hitting 37.7 percent of his 3-pointers when he stepped outside. Allen has nothing of the offensive creation that Jokic and Embiid have and thus will never be a serious MVP candidate.
Rudy Gobert is Allen’s closest comp in the top tier, a screen-setter and rim-runner on offense who protects the rim on defense. Gobert is the best of that archetype in the league and one of the best in NBA history, setting frequent and crushing screens and stretching the court vertically by sprinting to the rim. He is the reigning and a three-time Defensive Player of the Year. All of that, and Gobert finished 10th in MVP voting. Without the offensive counting stats that level is just not there.
Allen is very clearly not in and not close to this tier.
Where does Jarrett Allen rank among the league’s centers? Tier 2 – Perennial All-Stars
Below the level of MVP candidates we have players who are bringing elite production to one or both ends of the court, and are either making All-Star teams frequently when healthy or deserve to be.
Bam Adebayo leads the way here, although he plays many of his minutes with another big man on the court; all of the guys in this tier do. Adebayo runs the Miami Heat offense from the elbow, facilitating and scoring himself. He has an improved jumper and one day should get out to the 3-point line. Defensively he is strong and can take on most centers in the post, but his best strength is his footspeed to guard smaller players on switches.
Karl-Anthony Towns is more one-sided than Adebayo, but he is absolutely sublime on that one side. His career averages after six seasons are 22.9 points, 11.6 rebounds and 2.4 3-pointers per game on 39.4 percent shooting. He can score from anywhere, bombs triples like he’s the missing splash brother and elevates an entire team’s offense just by himself.
Myles Turner is our third entry on this list, and perhaps the most peculiar as he has never made an All-Star team. His defensive impact is intense, and few players defend the rim as ferociously as Turner, who twice has lead the league in blocks. This past season he averaged an eye-popping 3.4 blocks per game! Offensively he spaces the floor as a 3-point shooter, a necessity playing alongside Domantas Sabonis and a boon for every teammate.
As solid as Jarrett Allen is as a finisher, he does not create offense or elevate the play of his teammates; he is a dependent player on offense. Add in the fact that he doesn’t space the floor either, and he is a major step below this tier on offense, and below both Adebayo and Turner on defense. This isn’t where he lands either. Financially, Towns and Adebayo are two of the six players who make more than Allen, while Turner is tied with him with a $20 million AAV.
Where does Jarrett Allen rank among the league’s centers? Tier 3 – High-end starters
We now enter the range where it is reasonable to more seriously consider Allen’s landing place. This tier, roughly the seventh through the tenth-best centers, are those who are not All-Star caliber (even if one has made two All-Star games) but are solid enough for their teams to feel confident they have the position covered.
Nikola Vucevic is the most offensively gifted, able to score at will from all three levels. He has some defensive questions but instantly elevates a team’s offense. He is under contract for $25 million per season, the final player who will make more than Allen next year.
Clint Capela proved his defense is top-notch during the Atlanta Hawks’ run to the NBA Finals, and his nose for lobs near the rim is spectacular. Capela, who had arguably had a better start to his career than Allen, was in a similar situation two offseasons ago and signed for five years and $90 million.
Brook Lopez is a veteran presence inside for the champion Milwaukee Bucks, one of the league’s best rim protecting centers and a brilliant defender of the pick-and-roll dance. Offensively he is not a high-volume guy but he can both bully smaller players inside and space the floor outside.
Finally, DeAndre Ayton is the guy in line behind Allen. During the playoffs Ayton elevated his game even further, attacking the rim to be available for passes (including Valley Oops) and catching and finishing with incredibly soft hands. Defensively he isn’t Gobert, but he is above average already and plays a pivotal role on a team that just made it to the NBA Finals.
Allen could develop into this group over time. He won’t have the offensive ability of Vucevic and likely won’t even develop an outside shot like Lopez or Ayton. That leaves the Clint Capela path, becoming an elite rim protector and willing screen-setter and rim-runner. He is no lock to get there, but it’s within the range of reasonable outcomes.
Where does Jarrett Allen rank among the league’s centers? Tier 4 – Solid Starters
Christian Wood, Jonas Valanciunas, Richaun Holmes, Al Horford, Jakob Poetl, Ivica Zubac, Steven Adams, Jarrett Allen
Finally we arrive in the fourth tier, labeled “solid starters” for players who can start on a good team, but aren’t so good they could be “the guy” or even “the guy’s guy.” These are fourth and fifth starters, players who fill an important role.
Players like Christian Wood and Jonas Valanciunas provide offensive verve while not completely opting out defensively. Ivica Zubac and Jakob Poetl are young centers in the mold of Allen, filling their role and playing hard when they do see the court.
Al Horford and Steven Adams are something of the old guard, players still with plenty left in the tank but who have clearly lost a step. Finally Richaun Holmes was the second-best center on the free agent market, and his leverage brought back the most he could make in Sacramento using his Early Bird Rights.
Jarrett Allen falls somewhere in this group, probably towards the top of it. He is much younger and likely to trend up, not down like Horford and Adams, although Horford’s outside shooting should help solve some problems. He is also less proven and completely dependent on his team’s guards to create shots.
That means the Cavs are paying Jarrett Allen $20 million a year, the seventh-most in the league at the position. Yet he probably slots more in the 12-15 range than in the top 10. His archetype – rim-running center, rim-defending too, is valuable on an NBA court but also replaceable to a certain extent. Holmes, although older, is a better center than Allen right now based on nearly every number, which backs up the eye test.
In the end, the Cavaliers won’t fold as a franchise and move to Virginia Beach or Las Vegas if they overpay a restricted free agent. Allen’s contract is likely an overpay, but it’s also a bet on a young player who fits their core and scheme. Whether Allen can grow as a player and sneak into the Top 10? That’s highly unlikely, and not happening anytime soon, as it’s the faint hope of a whisper. For now he can play great defense and protect the rim and grow alongside the rest of the core players.