The Cleveland Cavaliers made their big splash of the offseason in the NBA Draft, taking big man Evan Mobley with the No. 3 overall pick. Whatever the Cavs end up doing in free agency is secondary to taking what they hope and expect is the future star of the franchise.
That doesn’t mean there was nothing to do in free agency. The Cavs need to add at least one, and ideally two reserve wings to play behind Collin Sexton and Isaac Okoro. Then at center they entered free agency with both of their primary pieces no longer under contract. That made the decision on restricted free agent Jarrett Allen a top priority.
The Cavs dropped a major offer to keep Jarrett Allen around. What are the specific terms?
That prioritization led to a massive contract offer, and just minutes into free agency on Monday night the Cavaliers and Allen reportedly (and unofficially) agreed to a five-year, $100 million contract. His AAV (Average Annual Value) of $20 million immediately places him in a tie for sixth among all centers.
Restricted free agent Jarrett Allen has agreed to a five-year, $100 million deal to re-sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) August 2, 2021
Was this a good signing? To evaluate that, we cannot just look to one piece of the puzzle. Instead we have to step back and take a holistic view of the situation. To that end, we will grade this move in three different areas. Was bringing back Allen a good fit for the franchise and roster? Was his contract number a good value? Finally, was there any opportunity to do something better?
Grading the Jarrett Allen signing: The Fit
Jarrett Allen fits well one of the modern archetypes of a big man. He is not a post-up dinosaur hoping to get touches on the block and break down his defender. Allen sets hard screens and rolls to the hoop, sucking in the defense or sprinting his way open for alley oop passes. He is not a shooter, hitting just 20 percent of his 85 career attempts from distance.
Defensively Allen is a strong rim protector, not to mention a strong player in general who is not easily moved. His feet are faster than you would think, and he does a reasonable job defending in space, but his best scenario is a scheme that drops him back into the paint and allows him to deter all comers.
Allen fits a lot better than other centers, such as his predecessor Andre Drummond, because he does not demand the ball. He is a talented finisher and reasonable passer so he should get touches, but he is not going to pull them forcefully from his teammates. He can slot in lower on the food chain and still thrive.
The idea of Evan Mobley fits decently well with Allen. Mobley is purported to be a “perimeter player” in a “big’s body” and thus able to space the floor from the 4 position. His handle and passing mean he and Allen can even run big-big pick-and-rolls together. Allen’s speed as a defender and weakside shot-blocker could allow him to excel alongside a traditional center.
The balance of assets has to be weighed here as well. This team is paying an exorbitant amount of money to its big men, from Kevin Love’s $31 million to Allen’s $20 million average and Larry Nance Jr.’s $10.7 million. Evan Mobley was taken with the third overall pick, the highest draft pick in seven years for the team. That is a lot of this team’s assets tied up in the modern game’s least valuable positions.
Long-term the Cavs have to hope that Evan Mobley can hold up as a center defensively. Perhaps even when he fills out they will want to start a traditional center, but the way to truly unlock his upside and the future Cavs roster will be with Mobley at the 5 with guard skills on offense, and four perimeter players spread around him.
If the Cavs want to realize that potential, they will likely need to move on from Allen down the line. While it’s possible he will play out his entire contract in Cleveland, it’s nowhere near a certainty. It seems like a difficult choice to invest $20 million a season on a player you hope will get pushed from the starting lineup because your star developed properly.
Grade: B-
Grading the Jarrett Allen signing: The Value
However you perceive Allen’s long-term fit on the Cavaliers roster, restricted free agency is often about retaining a talented player at a good price and looking to move them later. Did the Cavs bring back their center at a good price?
As mentioned above, Allen’s contract averages $20 million per season. Only five centers have a higher AAV than he will on this next deal. The worst of those five players, Nikola Vucevic, is a two-time All-Star, and the best just won the league’s MVP award this past season (Nikola Jokic). While Allen has plenty of upside left at just 23 years old, he would have to improve significantly to even approach the level of those players.
Depending on how the Cavs structure the contract, Allen will be either the second or third-highest paid player on the roster next season, well above the rookie contract young players trying to build a career of their own in order to earn a contract of this magnitude when their time comes.
Allen is simply not worth this number right now; he’s being paid like a top-6 center and he’s not at that level. Will he get better? He probably will; in fact he averaged a career-high in points per game with 13.2 after joining Cleveland. Yet even if he improves the gulf between Allen and an All-Star season is wide, and it’s hard to be much lower than an All-Star level and justify $20 million per season.
Center is the most replaceable position in the league. The Cavs could have added a slightly worse player in free agency for a quarter of the price; that’s the reality of a league with plenty of centers and not enough rotation spots. Richaun Holmes has reportedly agreed to a deal with a $13.75 million AAV, and Allen wasn’t better than Holmes last season. However you look at this, the numbers are very high and it is not a good value, especially not on such a long-term deal.
Grade: C-
Grading the Jarrett Allen signing: The Opportunity
This is the area where re-signing Allen at such a lofty number begins to make more sense. If the Cavs had not signed Allen to that contract and he had walked in restricted free agency, how could the team have replaced him?
On the roster the need for Allen is palpable. They have no true centers under contract, with Isaiah Hartenstein declining his player option to hit free agency this summer as well. Evan Mobley might one day be a center but he is very slight right now and needs time in an NBA strength and conditioning program. Kevin Love can play at center if you surround him with the right defensive talent, but he is so injured these days the team can’t rely on him. Larry Nance Jr. can play small ball center but having him play every minute checking much larger, heavier players would not maximize his abilities.
On the open market the pickings were just as slim. Richaun Holmes was arguably a better player than Allen last season, but he agreed to a contract to return to the Sacramento Kings only a few hours after Allen agreed to his. It’s unlikely he would have still be around by the time Allen’s restricted free agency process worked out.
The drop off after those two players was as steep as it gets. Kelly Olynyk, Daniel Theis, Cody Zeller — none of these are the guy you want to trust at center. Theis would be a reasonable stopgap center, but in a rotation that keeps his minutes down and on a short-term contract. He wouldn’t be a long-term solution.
The fit with Allen on this roster is good, but it’s not elite as he is a non-shooter who is best deployed in a conservative defensive scheme. He is solid in that role, but he’s not as versatile as other players. Add on the very questionable financial value of paying him $20 million per year for the next half-decade, and the re-signing looks like a mistake.
Yet you also have to consider opportunity, and for a team over the cap their options to build an entire center rotation were limited. Allen is young, fits this team’s timeline and is valued around the league, so in a pinch his contract might be tradeable. Either way he should help this team in the here and now, and the franchise can figure out the rest later on.
Grade: A-