Cleveland Cavaliers: Should they trade back in the NBA Draft with OKC?

The Cleveland Cavaliers enter the 2021 NBA Draft with the potential for tonight to be a major inflection point in the future of their franchise. Armed with pick No. 3, they are widely expected to take USC big man Evan Mobley with the No. 3 pick.

Rumors and rumors of rumors are swirling as the minutes tick off before the draft begins. Some of those are about the Cavaliers’ canvassing of the league about a potential trade involving Collin Sexton, who is coming close to a new contract and isn’t a seamless fit with Darius Garland in the backcourt.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are all set to select a franchise superstar prospect in the 2021 NBA Draft. Should anything change their mind?

The morning of the draft a new rumor emerged, or at least a very specific iteration of one. The Oklahoma City Thunder are known to covet a spot in the top 3 of the draft, but with three all-time prospects available at the top the asking price for the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets or Cavaliers to trade down to No. 6 (owned by the Thunder) is sure to be astronomical.

Yet the Thunder can afford astronomical. They have a deep and glittering chest of assets, 39 picks in the next seven drafts as well as some young pieces. They can outbid just about any other team in terms of draft capital. And reports tell us that they are trying to do just that. They first started at the top, offering a package including their rising star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in a deal to the Detroit Pistons for the No. 1 pick. Detroit turned them down.

The ties between the Thunder and the Rockets are already complicated with protected picks owed back and forth, so it’s less likely they will be able to pop into the second pick. That means that if the Thunder want one of the three best players in this year’s draft, they need to get to No. 3.

For the Thunder, throwing a huge offer at the Cavaliers make sense. They have more picks than they can possibly use, and their rebuild only works if they land at least one, if not two, foundational star players. It’s much less likely one of those will be available with the sixth pick, but it looks like one — likely Evan Mobley — will be available with the third. The word on the street is that the Thunder are discussing just such a deal with the Cavaliers (subscription requred).

Should the Cavaliers entertain a trade down to No. 6? It depends on the deal being offered back. Staying put at No. 3 means a player in Evan Mobley who can be the building block for everything that comes after. There are no sure things in the NBA, but everything points to him being a two-way star who redefines a team’s defensive ceiling. The Cavaliers don’t have a player like that on the roster, on either end of the court.

Yet the Oklahoma City Thunder have an incredibly talented franchise building block of their own in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The 6’6″ guard started his career as the nominal starter at point guard for the playoff-bound LA Clippers, then was the 2-guard (and sometimes small forward!) for the Thunder two seasons ago playing alongside Chris Paul.

Last year Gilgeous-Alexander took the reigns and never looked back, averaging 23.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game. He shot 41.8 percent from 3-point range despite creating many of those attempts himself. Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) rated him in the 93rd percentile for on-court impact; in other words, he was a borderline top-30 player as a 22 year old on a tanking team.

Reports are that Gilgeous-Alexander has not been a part of the trade discussions between the Cavs and the Thunder. If he is brought into the discussions then the Cavaliers absolutely need to not only listen, but lean towards pulling the trigger. Gilgeous-Alexander has the size to coexist in the backcourt with either Sexton or Darius Garland, but he is already a better player than either of them will likely become. “SGA” is capable of running a successful NBA offense, right now.

A construct of a small contract and the No. 3 pick for No. 6 and Gilgeous-Alexander is one that the Cavaliers should think long and hard about accepting, and despite all of the potential Mobley possesses they should say yes. SGA is already a building block, perhaps worth the No. 3 pick alone, and absolutely worth the fall back to No. 6.

What if Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t in the deal? Then things start to get murkier. Do the Cavaliers want to fill up on draft picks to turn around and make their own offers to teams for players like Ben Simmons or Damian Lillard? How willing are the Thunder to take on the contract of Kevin Love?

What if the offer is No. 6, No. 16, the Clippers’ 2022 first round pick and the taking on of Kevin Love’s salary for No. 3? Is that enough for the Cavaliers to pull the trigger?

If this was a typical draft, and the players available at No. 3 were the typical selection of prospects, then perhaps that’s a deal well worth doing. As it is, the Cavaliers know they will get their pick of Jalen Green and Evan Mobley, with Mobley being the most likely scenario. Trading out of the chance to take him is more akin to trading the No. 1 pick in an average draft. Is cap relief and a pair of middling picks worth falling down to 6?

The Thunder might be willing to continue sweetening the pot, and each time they do it will be harder for the Cavaliers to say no. At the same time, none of the picks that the Thunder have are guaranteed to be good picks. They could be trading a dollar for eight dimes.

If the Thunder offer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Cavaliers should figure out a way for that deal to happen. Otherwise, they should stay put and pull the trigger on the future of their franchise and let the Thunder use their barrel of assets on someone else.