The Cleveland Cavaliers will welcome the Boston Celtics into Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse as they look to get to 3-4 on the season. Which team covers the spread?
The Cleveland Cavaliers will welcome conference rival Boston Celtics into Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse as they look to recover from a mini two-game skid.
In the Cavaliers’ last game against the Dallas Mavericks, much like the Milwaukee Bucks game from last week, they were right in it and even led late in the third quarter. The Mavericks used a monster fourth quarter in which they outscored the Cavs 41-25 to win going away, 131-111, behind early-season MVP candidate Luka Doncic.
The Cavs simply had no answer for Doncic and after a couple of strong performances to start the season, look to be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA yet again. According to NBA.com, the Cavaliers have a defensive rating of 109.5 (23rd in the NBA) and a net rating of -6.1. They are clearly an improved team from last season, but the last couple of games, especially on the defensive side of the floor, are concerning.
The Cavs will need to be excellent defensively in this game to not only cover the spread but win outright. The Action Network had the Cavs as six-point underdogs when the line opened. Despite 88% of the bets coming in on the Celtics, the line has remained at Cavaliers +6.
When you look at this line on the surface it looks like it isn’t large enough as the Celtics are currently 4-1 and Kemba Walker looks to be a great addition to this Celtics squad. However, when you start digging you find that Jaylen Brown is out due to an illness, per the Celtics and Enes Kanter is questionable, per Boston.com (both h\t Abigail Adams of nesn.com).
Missing those two players will serve as a major blow but this Boston team is still very good, even without them. The Celtics will still hold a clear advantage in the backcourt with the aforementioned Walker and one of the best defenders in the NBA in Marcus Smart.
More from King James Gospel
- 3 possible starting lineups for Cleveland Cavaliers in 2023-24
- The Cavaliers may have snagged a hidden gem in Craig Porter Jr.
- 4 players the Cavaliers should pursue in 2024 free agency
- 6 players Cavaliers might replace Jarrett Allen with by the trade deadline
- This stat is one to keep an eye on for Cavaliers’ Max Strus in years ahead
They will also trot out Jayson Tatum who is off to an excellent start this season. According to Basketball-Reference, he has per-game averages of 22 points, 7.6 rebounds, and is shooting an incredible 48.6% from three on a healthy 7.4 attempts per game.
The Cavaliers will certainly have their hands full with Walker and Tatum and Smart will be a menace on the other end of the floor. Smart has a defensive rating, according to Basketball-Reference, of 103. That’s an excellent rating, especially when you consider he is oftentimes matched up with the opposing team’s best offensive player, regardless of size. The Celtics used him as the primary defender on Giannis Antetokounmpo the other night.
Celtics forward Gordon Hayward also appears to be regaining his form after suffering that gruesome injury in Cleveland, on opening night two years ago, and that’s nice to see. Per Basketball-Reference, he is currently averaging 16.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists while shooting 55.6% from deep on 3.6 attempts per game.
The Celtics currently hold the seventh-best net rating in the NBA according to NBA.com at 5.5. It looks like covering a six-point spread is out of the question for this Cavaliers team. However, the Cavs have one enormous advantage in this game, whether Kanter plays or not, and that’s in the rebounding department.
The Cavaliers currently sit 14th in the NBA in rebounding percentage at 50.1% and are number seven in defensive rebounding percentage at 75.1% according to NBA.com. The Celtics, are 29th in rebounding percentage at 47.5% and 19th in defensive rebounding percentage at 72.7% percent. The last time the Cavaliers faced such a poor rebounding team, the Chicago Bulls, they not only covered the spread, but they won the game outright.
The bet – Boston Celtics -6
The confidence level in this one is on the lower end of the spectrum due to the rebounding disparity. Boston should, on paper, win this game going away, but if they shoot it at even an average clip, the Cavaliers will cover and could win due to their ability to hit the boards.
Boston won’t have an answer for the Cavaliers big man duo of Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love, who are both having great starts to the season. Thompson has cooled off a bit over his last two games but is still doing an excellent job on the glass. For the season, per Basketball-Reference, he is averaging 16.5 points and 11.3 rebounds per game.
Love, on the other hand, is back to his days as a Minnesota Timberwolf where he stuffing the stat sheet. Through six games he should be considered a near-lock to make the All-Star team as, per Basketball-Reference, he is averaging 19.2 points (on only 12.2 attempts per night), 15.3 rebounds (second in the NBA), and 4.3 assists.
The Celtics will have to contain Love and Thompson, but if they’re making shots, it shouldn’t matter as it will negate the Cavaliers rebounding advantage. Take the Celtics, but be careful with this one, the Cavaliers could sneak this one out.