The Cleveland Cavaliers will travel to Milwaukee, Wisconsin tonight to take on the Milwaukee Bucks as they look to get to 2-1 on the season. Which way should you lean in betting this game?
The Cleveland Cavaliers have gotten off to a bit of a surprising start. They fell in a couple of holes against the Orlando Magic in the season opener but continued to climb out of those until they eventually lost by nine points.
In their home opener, they controlled the majority of the game against the Indiana Pacers and perhaps, looked as good as they have looked since the 2017-18 season.
The Magic and Pacers are both expecting to make the playoffs this season so it was nice to see the Cavs competitive in both games, and even win the Pacers contest. Tonight is a bit of a different beast, however.
The Milwaukee Bucks are a team that is expecting to win the NBA championship this season, behind last season’s MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The spread for this contest, according to the Action Network, opened with the Cavs being 14.5 point underdogs. 72% of the money has come in on the Bucks, which has added a half-point to the spread and it currently has the Cavs as a 15 point underdog.
The problem the Cavs are going to run into tonight, as is the same problem for the 28 other teams who have to defend Antetokounmpo, is who is going to guard him.
The Cavs have a few options, and all of them have a significant weakness when it comes to matching up with Antetokounmpo.
There is a small likelihood that the Cavs could go with a different starting lineup tonight to match up with the Bucks as they start Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Antetokounmpo, and Brook Lopez.
If they do, it will likely be Larry Nance Jr. inserted into the starting lineup and he will be the primary defender on Antetokounmpo to start the contest out.
Nance matches up well with Antetokounmpo from a size and length standpoint, but he lacks the footspeed to keep up with him.
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It may also be hard for head coach John Beilein to remove Tristan Thompson from the starting lineup with as well as he has played throughout the first two games. Per Basketball-Reference, Thompson is averaging 20.5 points and 12 rebounds per game so far this season. He has done so with an incredible eFG% of 72.2%.
Thompson has a well-known reputation for being able to switch off on to ball-handlers and hold his own. However, that is not an every possession occurrence and he may have some trouble maintaining a high level of on-ball defense for an extended period of time against Antetokounmpo.
The Cavs could also elect to go small and insert rookie Kevin Porter Jr. into the starting lineup and allow Cedi Osman to chase Antetokounmpo around. That is highly unlikely though.
The Cavaliers have been excellent through two games on the defensive end of the floor, which is a stark contrast to last season. They are yet to allow 100 points as they only allowed 94 in their loss to the Magic and they held the Pacers to 99 points.
The Cavs should have an advantage in the second unit tonight, especially if the reserves play as well as they did against Indiana. For as good as the Bucks starting unit is, their bench leaves a little to be desired. Their key reserves are George Hill, Robin Lopez, Kyle Korver, Ersan Ilyasova, and Pat Connaughton. If they aren’t knocking down shots, they don’t do much else well to provide a solid impact.
The Cavs counter with Jordan Clarkson, Nance, Porter, and Matthew Dellavedova. In order for the Cavs to cover the spread in this contest, they will need to outplay the Bucks second unit.
The bet – Cleveland Cavaliers +15
15 points are too many in an NBA game to not take the points. The Cavs are also 2-0 against the spread this season as they were 9.5 point underdogs to the Magic and 5.5 point underdogs to the Pacers.
The Cavs may have also found something from an offensive perspective in their game against the Pacers. They used Kevin Love as the focal point and he was splendid. He had 21 points (on only eight shots), 13 rebounds, and 9 assists. The Love-Thompson combination is playing as well as any frontcourt in the NBA through two games. If they can contain Antetokounmpo, even a little, they should cover the 15 point spread.