How the Cavs stack up against the Rockets
The Houston Rockets no longer have the likes of Chris Paul as a second star playmaker alongside arguably the best guard in the NBA in James Harden, and as was detailed in the Cavs-Oklahoma City Thunder 2019-20 breakdown, Paul is now on the Oklahoma City Thunder, whereas Houston now has Russell Westbrook as Harden’s running mate for long stretches this season.
How that shakes out is one of the most compelling storylines of the 2019-20 NBA season, and frankly, I’m skeptical, considering the Rockets will always want floor spacers around Harden, and how the ball-dominant Westbrook, who has not had a usage rate below 30.1% since the 2009-10 season (per NBA.com) and whose career-best as a three-point shooter is just 34.3%, seems like a clunky fit on the surface.
Westbrook, though he does not have nearly the creativity and vision as a passer/lob delivery man the way Harden does, is still a player that can make things happen by constantly putting pressure on opposing defenses, and though I don’t see him leading the league in assists again this year as he did last season (per Basketball Reference), Westbrook should be able to also create plenty of open looks the way Paul did from penetration.
Unlike Paul, Westbrook does it more so from aggressive drives, and not as much poking and prodding to manipulate defenses like Paul, but either way, against the Cleveland Cavaliers (and plenty of other teams, anyhow) and the likes of Sexton and/or Garland or perhaps the rookie Porter for stretches, Westbrook drives will still be very effective I would think.
Also factoring in ancillary pieces such as wing Eric Gordon, who had 16.9 points per game last season, quality reserve guard Austin Rivers, reserve wing Gerald Green, who is a tough shot maker and high-flyer, and big Clint Capela, who is one of the league’s best rollers and has incredible chemistry with Harden, and wing Danuel House Jr., who emerged later on last season and I’d think could be in for a significant leap this year after hitting 41.6% of his three-point attempts, and Houston has plenty of firepower and will make it difficult for the Cavs defensively.
I’d think with the way Westbrook, Gordon and Harden will penetrate at will, free agent signings Thabo Sefolosha and Ryan Anderson, now entering his second stint with Houston via significantly partially guaranteed deal (as was reported by Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium), should have their fair share of knockdown catch-and-shoot three-point opportunities as well, which is just another tough thing the Cavs will have difficulty accounting for.
On the offensive end from the Cavs’ perspective, I’d expect the Rockets to have Westbrook, Rivers and feasibly players such as Gordon and House to try to funnel Cleveland’s drivers such as Sexton, Garland and Osman toward Capela, who is a stout presence at the rim and has 2.0 blocks per-36 minutes for his career (per Basketball Reference), and for some stretches, veteran free agent acquisition Tyson Chandler, who is still a very formidable presence in his own right near the basket.
Now, though, Cleveland should have some success in taking advantage of Harden on the perimeter, though Houston does like to use him often as more of a post defender, where he was very effective last season, as he was the primary defender in the post more often than any other player last season, and placed in the 90th percentile, per Synergy Sports; the Cavs will need to find ways to run him off screens, still, though, where they could get a fair amount of curls and catch-and-shoot plays for the likes of Windler, potentially, which could help their chances in games.
Cleveland could also feasibly take advantage of Westbrook’s over-aggressiveness in terms of hunting steals and deflections, too, and could get some open looks for Sexton/Garland or potentially Clarkson/Matthew Dellavedova as a result of ball-swings leading to soft closeouts from Westbrook (though Clarkson/Dellavedova and/or Brandon Knight are on expiring deals, potentially making them off the squad for the second matchup on St. Patrick’s Day, for the record).
Perhaps Love or John Henson (though he’s expiring as well) could get some quality spot-up opportunities in times they’re defended by Capela, primarily an interior defender, too.
Given the great IQ of veterans in Chandler, versatile inside-out small-ball 4 P.J. Tucker, a high-level point-of-attack defender in Rivers, and a still-quality wing defender in Sefolosha, though, turnovers could mount as games progresses against Houston for these predominantly young Cavaliers, though.
I wouldn’t expect a ton of assists for Cleveland in these games, either.
Predicing how the Cavs will do against Houston in 2019-20: 0-2
The Cavaliers had a big win early last season against Houston, but that was in large part because of prior reserve wing David Nwaba playing outstanding primary defense against Harden.
Nwaba is now on the Brooklyn Nets (courtesy of unrestricted free agency), and he’ll be missed in these meetings greatly by Cleveland head coach John Beilein and the Cavs’ coaching staff.
The Rockets’ offense and their three-point barrage will be too much in both meetings, in my opinion, even if the Harden-Westbrook dynamic isn’t operating at full capacity.