How the Cavs stack up against the Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks started off the 2018-19 season well, and had a decent 26-31 record going into the All-Star break (per NBA.com), but seemed to lose some traction post-All-Star break, and ended up with a 33-49 record.
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Nonetheless, the Mavs appear to have two franchise cornerstones moving forward and have one of the league’s best duos with playmaker Luka Doncic (the 2019 Rookie of the Year) and star power forward Kristaps Porzingis, whom they acquired via reported trade during last season from the New York Knicks.
With Porzingis now seemingly ready to roll this year after missing all of last season with the ACL injury he suffered in the back half of the 2017-18 season, it’s going to be really tough for the Cleveland Cavaliers to handle those two.
Porzingis is an elite shooting big, much like Kevin Love from the Cavs’ perspective, as evidenced by Porzingis averaging 17.8 points per game in his 2.5 year-career (cut short by injury which would’ve made it four years, for reference), and shooting 41.6% on catch-and-shoot three-pointers in the 2017-18 season (per NBA.com’s shot tracking data).
KP can create scoring opportunities for himself off-the-bounce at all three levels, has an impressive baseline and mid-post fadeaway, and with the playmaking and amazing vision of Doncic, I could see Porzingis having the best year of his career to this point, with his shooting and putback prowess, and I’m not sure how Cleveland and the likes of feasibly Osman/Porter/Tristan Thompson/Larry Nance Jr. defend a Doncic-KP pick-and-roll for good stretches.
Could the Mavs potentially rest one of the two against a likely worse team next year in the Cavs? Sure, though.
The Mavericks also have a tough roller and solid pick-and-pop option for Doncic and guards such as Jalen Brunson and J.J. Barea in Maxi Kleber, and let’s not dismiss the rim-running and putback presence of 7-foot-3, 290-pound free agent addition Boban Marjanovic, who is always efficient when he’s in the game (as shown by his 26.4 PER lifetime, per Basketball Reference), and those two could be tough for Sexton, Windler and possibly Jordan Clarkson to get around to contest Dallas wings Tim Hardaway Jr. and/or potentially mid-season trade addition Justin Jackson, who played well with Dallas last year.
On the offensive end, the key for Cleveland I would think is to get Doncic having to run through screen after screen on a bunch of possessions, to wear him out, and get the ball hopping to keep Porzingis, if possible, away from obvious shot-blocking opportunities, and I’d think that’d include attacking him with post-ups from Love.
KP is a tremendous shot blocker, as evidenced by his career 2.0 blocks per game and career block rate of 5.3% (per Basketball Reference), but that’s much more-so applied as a rotator, and in post defense, that’s not nearly as much of the case as say was with a stout post defender in DeAndre Jordan (who is now on the Brooklyn Nets via unrestricted free agency), and if Love can create some early fouls on Porzingis, the Cleveland Cavaliers would be much better off throughout these matchups.
The aforementioned Kleber is a formidable rim protector in his own right, and is a solid post defender and tags rollers well, and of course, Marjanovic is a monster near the rim on defense that always alters shots when he’s on the floor, but if the Cavs can get switchouts with Brunson, for example, no longer against the likes of Sexton or Garland after quality screens, penetration could come fairly easily, as Kleber is not a player that is nearly as capable of switching out on the perimeter as Porzingis or likely starting 5 Dwight Powell, and Marjanovic cannot realistically switch out at all, and typically just drops.
From there, it’ll be up to Sexton/Garland to take find corner kick-outs to the likes of a combination of Windler, Love, Porter, Osman, Brandon Knight and/or Clarkson for spot-ups.
Predicting how the Cavs will do against Dallas in 2019-20: 1-1
The combination of Doncic and Porzingis is one that would seem to work seamlessly, as both are such skilled players, and with Doncic’s vision, the tandem projects as being a really tough one for Cleveland to account for.
Brunson is a really heady player in his own right on the perimeter on both ends, and I would think Dorian Finney-Smith and Jackson are tough matchups for the Cavs’ small forwards and/or small-ball 4’s to penetrate on, too.
However, with the Cavs playing Dallas two times in November, and specifically, a game being Nov. 3 at home, I could see the Mavs, and really, the Luka-KP pairing not quite gelling completely yet.
I’ll say the Cavaliers are fired up for that one, Dallas takes it lightly and maybe even after a physical game against the Los Angeles Lakers on Nov. 1 (as shown on their schedule, per Mavs.com/the NBA), Porzingis has a load management game against the Cavs and Cleveland takes advantage inside.
I don’t see Cleveland taking both meetings, though.