Predicting how the Cavaliers will do against the Northwest Division

How the Cavs stack up against the Timberwolves

The Timberwolves are a squad that appears to be in transition, but they do have some nice pieces to rely on for head coach Ryan Saunders. Though I wouldn’t expect Minnesota to realistically be a postseason team in the packed West, they have the makings of a decent NBA team.

Veteran point guard Jeff Teague, who had 12.1 points and 8.2 assists per game last year but was limited to only 42 games for Minny, reportedly had ankle surgery earlier this year and seems to be fine heading into the 2019-20 season; he’s a steady contributor and does a good job of consistently getting into the paint to finish on drives and has quality feel in the pick-and-roll.

Of course, Teague is on an expiring contract, so perhaps Sexton and/or Garland might not have to defend him, but with both matchups being concluded by January 5, I’d think Cleveland would end up still facing the veteran playmaker.

Sexton, with his quickness, could do alright against Teague, who is still not the most comfortable shooting three-point looks as some other starting point guards, but again, Teague could be tough to keep out of the paint if he’s fully healthy.

As far as other contributors, rookie wing Jarrett Culver is capable of creating for himself some for the Timberwolves, and at 6-foot-6, could be a challenge for the 6-foot-2 Garland to handle curling around screens.

Forward Robert Covington, who was an early-season trade acquisition from the Philadelphia 76ers as a piece involved in the reported Jimmy Butler deal early last season, shot 37.2% from three-point range with the Timberwolves last year (per NBA.com), and he’s a player that Cedi Osman will need to stay attached to, which could open up some driving lanes for others.

The likely starting 3 for Minnesota that I’d think Osman, Porter and perhaps Dylan Windler will defend at times is Andrew Wiggins, who though he’s never really lived up to his physical gifts, will likely put up his numbers against Cleveland.

That’ll be probably fine, though, because Wiggins is a player that’s prone to early-clock contested long two’s, and considering that he’s hit just 34.2% on a frequency of 22.1% from two-point shots 16 feet to the three-point arc in his career (per Basketball Reference), I’ll live with that from the Cavs’ perspective.

The biggest key to Minnesota, though, is that the Cleveland Cavaliers will have their cut out for themselves when it comes to defending one of the NBA’s most versatile bigs in Karl-Anthony Towns.

Towns had 24.4 points per game on 62.2% true shooting last season, and with the constant post-up, pick-and-pop and playmaking threat (he had 3.4 assists per game last year) Towns poses, he’ll likely be able to control the game a bunch and draw fouls on a variety of Cleveland bigs, and feasibly Cleveland’s best shot blocking presence in John Henson (though he could be an expiring trade piece, so he may not be in the rotation at that point with Cleveland rebuilding).

Given Towns’ inside-out skill set at the 5, I’d expect Minnesota to get a bunch of wide-open looks, but outside of Covington and Teague, the Cavs are probably okay with that from a volume perspective; perhaps new free agency arrivals Jake Layman and Noah Vonleh can do damage as catch-and-shoot threats from deep, but that’s something I’d be willing to live with if I’m Beilein.

On the offensive end, Sexton and Garland would both fare well against Teague, who struggles to keep guards out of the paint, but the sound fundamental on and off-ball defense of Culver and Josh Okogie would be tough to shake free from.

The key player the Cavaliers should be targeting on Minnesota is Wiggins if they can find the matchups. Wiggins’ effort on that end, both on and off the ball seems to waiver, and getting through screens and shutting off driving lanes does not seem to be something he does well, so Osman, Porter and Windler should be able to find some efficient production against Wiggins if being guarded by him.

Covington is one of the league’s best off-ball defenders, and with him back and fully reportedly healthy now after having rough ankle and knee ailments last season (he only played in 35 games), Cleveland will have to know where he’s at at all times.

Covington had 2.3 steals and 1.1 blocks per game last year with Minnesota, which was remarkable, and with the way he can slip through off-ball screens, get his hands on skip and adjacent passes so consistently, he could turn the Cavs over a bunch; additionally, it’s not as if Covington’s on-ball defense is anything to gloss over against 3’s and some 4’s, either.

Layman is a sound defender as well on the perimeter, and Vonleh and free agent arrival Jordan Bell are defensive upgrades over the departed Taj Gibson when it comes to pick-and-roll coverage.

Predicting how the Cavs will do against Minnesota in 2019-20: 1-1

Given that the T’wolves have one of the game’s best all-around bigs in Towns, who also is a great shot blocker on the other end and two-way rebounder, he’s good enough to simply control the play in one matchup, where the other contributors around him hit their shots, too.

I don’t see Minnesota having a consistent season shooting perimeter looks, especially with Dario Saric no longer with them, though, and I’ll say Love and the Cavaliers shoot better in one of the matchups from deep and even out the meetings.

Can Saunders and the T’wolves really get Wiggins to shoot less mid-range shots even with the team’s new president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas seemingly urging that sort of thing going forward, anyway?

I’m not sure, and even if so, Wiggins has shot an underwhelming 33.2% from deep for his career, and again, he’s never looked particularly comfortable shooting from that range.

One game for Cleveland against Minny seems feasible to me.