Predicting how the Cavaliers will do against the Northwest Division

Cleveland Cavaliers big Ante Zizic with the ball. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

How the Cavs stack up against the Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets were a team that took a significant step forward in 2018-19, as they finished the regular season with a 54-28 record (per NBA.com) and were the second seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.

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This is another squad that is one the Cavaliers will likely struggle against.

When discussing the Nuggets, it starts with their superstar center Nikola Jokic, who is the best passing big man in the NBA, and is one of the most creative passers I’ve ever seen.

Jokic led all true bigs in playmaking metrics last season, as he had 7.3 assists per game, and was sixth among all players in total assists (per Basketball Reference).

With his ability to playmake inverted out on the perimeter, make precise behind-the-back passes to cutters when operating on the low block and even when strong-side doubles come, and make unreal Larry Bird-esque tap passes near the paint or out to shooters such as guards Jamal Murray or Gary Harris, thinking of how the Cavs can contain Jokic’s playmaking is about as puzzling as it gets to me.

Around Jokic, who led Denver in scoring last season with 20.1 points per game (per NBA.com) and is an excellent post-up player with good touch on floaters and in the mid-range area, the Nuggets have a bevy of players that could also give Cleveland’s defense, which will likely be featuring a bunch of youngsters, problems.

Harris and Murray, who though the latter is streaky and makes some questionable decisions, are two players that could be tough to account for. Murray, who had 18.2 points per game, has outstanding chemistry with Jokic in pick-and-roll situations, and that could be tough for Sexton to deal with over the course of these games, and Murray can get red-hot as a three-level scorer, too.

Harris, even while he had a down year overall and shot just 33.6% from three-point range, is a player that has been very effective in his career when firing off screens and is a good cutter as well, which I’d imagine will give Garland, and potentially likes of Jordan Clarkson, Matthew Dellavedova and/or Brandon Knight (though it’s unclear if those three will be on the roster in these January and March 7 matchups, given their expiring contracts), some issues.

Along with that, Denver has a steady contributor in a do-it-all scoring presence in Paul Millsap at the 4 which is likely to be tough for Love, Larry Nance Jr. and/or at times maybe Cedi Osman to handle, and Denver is a really deep team that features a terrific backup point guard in Monte Morris, and quality bench scoring threats in wings Will Barton (though he might start this year) and Malik Beasley, who will likely cause from defensive struggles for the likes of Windler, Porter, Osman and/or Garland/Sexton.

From there, adding in forward Michael Porter Jr., who did not play in his rookie season due to reported back surgery and later reportedly suffered a knee injury in a team scrimmage but is now healthy and is in the running for the starting small forward spot (per DNVR Sports’ Harrison Wind), Denver could have a really talented big who can be an over-the-top threat at times and is a really talented shooter as well.

If Porter’s healthy next year, along with rookie big Bol Bol (though those are big ifs), Cleveland’s in for two even longer nights defensively, though Bol is on a two-way deal, so it’s unclear as to whether or not he’ll be a player that will be active then, as he is someone they may eventually not want to sign for a rest-of-season deal.

Defensively, the Nuggets were much improved last season, and were 10th in the league in defensive rating (per NBA.com).

Denver has two players that can provide some rim protection throughout games in Jokic and Mason Plumlee, and additionally, Paul Millsap is in that realm as well; although they only combined to block 2.4 shots per game (per NBA.com), the three are very good interior defenders that also are stout in the post, so it won’t be easy for Cleveland to simply get buckets at the rim from Love or Ante Zizic deep post touches or Sexton, Garland, Osman or Porter drives.

On the perimeter, Nuggets wing Torrey Craig is a hard-nosed defender that does a great job of fighting through on and off-ball screens, and could be tough for Cleveland’s primary perimeter threats to penetrate and/or get pull-ups on.

Forward Jerami Grant, who is a new Denver addition via trade from the Oklahoma City Thunder for a 2020 first-round pick (as was initially reported by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski), is a player that can guard 3’s and 4’s at a high level with his functional athleticism and ability to alter shots, too.

Grant, who also had a career-best 13.6 points per game last season (per Basketball Reference), has a career block rate of 4.0%, so he’s another player that Cleveland will likely have trouble finishing around near the paint and/or on spot-ups, as Grant, who is a fluid 6-foot-9 player, has a 7-foot-3 wingspan.

With the lack of paint threat, the Cavs’ movement could feasibly be halted, and the perimeter shooting opportunities might have to come from a bunch of one-on-ones, so that’s not too promising for me.

Predicting how the Cavs will do against Denver in 2019-20: 0-2

The Nuggets are a really deep team and are now better with that Grant addition, and especially if Porter can stay healthy will be even tougher to beat.

Though Murray can have some head-scratching stretches, he’s definitely talented, and with the way Jokic can put up gaudy numbers even against the most intuitive big man defenders in the league, I’m not sure how Cleveland, regardless of if they have Tristan Thompson (who could be traded by when the teams meet and/or off the roster the second go-round) can compete with a well-rounded Denver team on the defensive end.

Again, Denver is pretty stout defensively, too, and I don’t see the Cavs having much of a chance in either of the two meetings.