Predicting how the Cavaliers will do against the Southeast Division

How the Cavs stack up against the Heat

The Heat are going to be a really tough matchup for the Cavaliers.

Miami is a team that will no longer have their best player in franchise history in guard Dwyane Wade, who retired after last season, but got better, anyhow.

Right near the beginning of free agency this summer, the Heat got their next franchise star in wing Jimmy Butler in a sign-and-trade, and to complete the Butler acquisition, there was a four-team trade involving the Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers, as was first reported by Wojnarowski and ESPN’s Zach Lowe.

In the deal in relation to Miami, they traded center Hassan Whiteside to the Trail Blazers, wing Josh Richardson to the Sixers and a protected 2023 first-round pick to the Clippers, while bringing back Portland forward Meyers Leonard, too.

So does this mean the Cavs will fare better against the Heat, then?

No, it does not.

While Whiteside has always been a big, bruising roller and offensive rebounder for the Cavs to deal with inside, I see Miami being more versatile with a much quicker Bam Adebayo being locked in as the full-time starting 5 going forward, and with him being a much better shooter than Whiteside with a capable mid-range J, I’d think Adebayo will be harder for players such as Thompson, Love or Nance to deal with.

In the backcourt, veteran lead guard Goran Dragic is still very capable of getting into the paint, and his ability to change speeds in the halfcourt, combined with respectable catch-and-shoot ability from deep (37.4% last season, per NBA.com’s shot tracking data), could be difficult for Sexton to gauge, and Dragic (an assist rate of 25.9% last season), is a more than capable distributor, too.

Granted, Dragic is on an expiring contract, so perhaps in the last two meetings after the trade deadline, Cleveland and Sexton/Garland wouldn’t have to deal with him, but either way, Gragic is formidable if active.

Perhaps the toughest matchup for Cleveland outside of Butler, who is undoubtedly Miami’s number one option, is Justise Winslow, though.

Winslow, who had 12.6 points (which included a 37.5% hit rate from three-point range), 5.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game (per NBA.com) is a player that can do damage at either the 1, 2 or 3 for Miami.

Last season, Winslow proved to be a home run when manning the point guard position for Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra, and against the Cavs, Winslow manning the point at 6-foot-7 and 225 pounds would be something that would likely give Beilein and the Cleveland coaching staff fits, and realistically, Porter could be the player they elect to go with there.

The problem with that is he’s the only player that could have a shot at maybe slowing down Butler, so it’d be quite a pickle, as I’m unsure as to whether or not Osman could have the ability to get through screens and keep Winslow out of the paint as a scorer/facilitator and lob thrower.

I’d imagine that Miami will force the Cavs to crash down off-ball in the paint to tag rollers/lobs to Adebayo/Derrick Jones Jr., and as a result, Butler should be able to eat consistently in the mid-post/along the baseline, Dion Waiters should be able to get space for isolations, and the likes of Kelly Olynyk, Leonard, sharpshooting rookie guard Tyler Herro, and others, such as rookie forward KZ Okpala on occasion, should get their share of open looks from three-point range.

On the offensive end, even though Miami did lose a really talented perimeter defender in Richardson and a rim protector in Whiteside, they’ll be plenty good still on that end overall in 2019-20, and against Cleveland I’d think, especially.

Butler, thanks to his outstanding IQ, is so difficult to set screens on or off the ball, and he’s able to initiate just the right amount of clean contact early on the catch to keep drivers out of the lane and close air space, which should hinder Osman, and/or Porter’s slashing ability, and with Butler’s uber-active hands, he lives in passing lanes (he was ninth in steals last season, per Basketball Reference) and times weak side blocks from behind near the baseline really well, which could wreak havoc against the young Cavs.

Combine that with versatile defenders in Jones, Winslow, to some degree small-ball big James Johnson (though he is expiring and it’s unclear if he’ll always be active against Cleveland), and Adebayo, and I don’t see much Cleveland being able to generate much from ball movement, and Adebayo can even give Love problems inside and on the perimeter with his strength, lateral quickness and active hands.

Miami has perennially been one of the league’s more disciplined defensive teams in Spoelstra’s tenure (even since the “Big Three Era” was over), and they were seventh in defensive rating last season (per NBA.com). I don’t see them being much different in that metric next year, either, and Cleveland I don’t see doing well on the offensive end against the Heat next year.

Predicting the Cavs’ record against Miami in 2019-20: 0-4

The Cavaliers weren’t very competitive last season against a Heat squad that narrowly missed the postseason, as shown by Cleveland losing all four contests by an average of 17.8 points per game.

The Heat didn’t have Jimmy Butler, a four-time All-Star then, and I see Adebayo, who will likely be playing much more next year, as a particularly tough matchup for Cleveland bigs.

Miami has similar success against the Cavaliers in 2019-20, regardless of mid-season roster turnover for both teams, which won’t apply much to the outcomes of games taking into account young pieces for Miami and Butler.