Predicting how the Cavaliers will do against the Southeast Division

How the Cavs stack up against the Hornets

The Cavaliers should be in good shape now against the Charlotte Hornets, who would appear to be a team that at this point needs to embrace a full-rebuild.

The Hornets lost their franchise player in lead guard Kemba Walker, a three-time All-Star, to unrestricted free agency to the Boston Celtics, along with a solid wing in Jeremy Lamb via unrestricted free agency to the Indiana Pacers.

So out the door went the team’s top two scorers from last season (per NBA.com) and realistically their top pick-and-roll playmakers as a result, and though former Boston Celtics guard Terry Rozier (who signed with Charlotte this offseason) is a nice player, he’s not close to the same caliber of a creator as Walker, who had 25.6 points and 5.9 assists per game last season for Charlotte and truly carried them offensively.

I’d expect Rozier to put up solid numbers with likely a much higher usage and ability to playmake with Charlotte in 2019-20, and against the likes of Sexton, Garland, and feasibly Jordan Clarkson, Rozier should be able to get to his spots I’d think pretty regularly, but Matthew Dellavedova could slow him down some if Cleveland chooses to go that route.

Outside of Rozier, though, the Hornets’ playmaking appears to be very limited next season. Nicolas Batum is a heady playmaker that has good vision (an assist rate of 18.4% for his career, per Basketball Reference) and will be Charlotte’s secondary playmaker in most instances, but he’s someone I’d think Cleveland can trap and ice a good amount to limit his penetration and kickouts to players such as Malik Monk.

From there, I’d think Dwayne Bacon is someone that Cedi Osman and Porter could defend pretty well in matchups at the small forward spot as long as they overplay him in the mid-range area on-ball, where Bacon loves to get his production.

Marvin Williams could give those two, along with Dylan Windler, some problems, though, given that Williams is a good shooter at all three levels, but does he move the needle enough to steal games? I don’t think so.

While forward Miles Bridges is a high-flyer that the Cavaliers will need to account for as a weak side lob threat and post-up player at times, his jumper is not something he can rely on, and as a result, I’d think Nance, Love and maybe at times two-way big Dean Wade can lay off Bridges some and drop on his rolls more to limit Bridges’ play above the rim.

Perhaps the toughest matchup for the Cavs in the frontcourt is rookie PJ Washington, who is very polished in the post, and also is a vastly improved three-point shooter, as evidenced by him shooting 42.3% from there last season at Kentucky on 2.2 attempts per game, as opposed to just 23.8% in his freshman year (per Sports Reference). That being said, can the Hornets afford to have in the post much?

I don’t see it, and I wouldn’t expect he’s able to play the 5 for long stretches at only 6-foot-8 and 228 pounds.

Willy Hernangomez and Cody Zeller are not players that concern me much inside, and don’t have much feel as playmakers, either, and clog the paint some.

On the offensive end, the Cavaliers should have plenty of penetration against Charlotte, who I’d think will struggle mightily in trying to keep Sexton and Osman out of the paint, and opportunities for a multitude of players, such as Delly and Garland, should be there for kickout passes.

Though Rozier was pretty solid defensively during his time with the Celtics against opposing point guards, he also had plenty of help from versatile defenders in Boston such as Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Semi Ojeleye and now Philadelphia 76er Al Horford to help him maintain matchup integrity.

Now on Charlotte and with him handling primary playmaking duties, I’d expect the 6-foot-1 Rozier to have more defensive struggles and factoring screens into the equation as well, Garland and Sexton should have plenty of success against Rozier on and off ball.

With penetration and the Cavaliers potentially getting their share of transition buckets, I’d think Cleveland is pretty efficient against Charlotte this season, especially from three-point range.

Predicting the Cavs’ record against Charlotte in 2019-20: 2-1

In a matchup of rebuilding teams, I’d think the Cavs take two out of three games, with the home team winning all of the games.

The Hornets are going to be arguably the worst team in the NBA in 2019-20, and even worse than the defensively-challenged Cavaliers who will be playing young pieces a ton.

Charlotte fans will miss Kemba a bunch I’m sure.