Predicting how the Cavaliers will do against the Southeast Division

How the Cavs stack up against the Hawks

I’d expect the Cavs and Hawks to be a good matchup of two young teams that should both be fun to watch on the offensive end of the floor in coming years, and I previously emphasized why I believe Atlanta is one of the more interesting opponents for Cleveland back around the time when the schedule release was.

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This matchup is one that should be pretty even I would think, with both teams likely filling it up pretty easily at the others’ expense.

I’m not really sure how the Cavaliers will be able to defend a budding star in Atlanta guard Trae Young, who was second among qualified rookies in scoring last season (per Basketball Reference) with 19.1 points per game, and led all qualified rookies in assists with 8.1 per game (again, per Basketball Reference).

Young has incredible range, and I’d think he’d be able to feast on the likes of Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, and others, as Young has a tremendous handle, can score from all three levels, and has passing feel you simply can’t teach.

How Cleveland accounts for Young as a scorer and playmaker is beyond me, especially with the rolling prowess of John Collins; perhaps Porter is the best defender Cleveland can put on Young to limit penetration, but we’ll see.

The Hawks also have the likes of Kevin Huerter, rookie De’Andre Hunter (acquired via reported draft trade with the New Orleans Pelicans per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski), and Allen Crabbe (acquired via reported trade that played into the acquisition of Hunter near the draft with the Brooklyn Nets, as Wojnarowski also reported) on the wing as catch-and-shoot specialists, and I’d think they should have plenty of success on kickouts, along with pull-ups, against the likely scrambling Cavs’ defense.

Huerter shot 38.5% from three-point land in his rookie year in 2018-19, while Hunter shot 41.9% in two seasons at Virginia from deep, per Sports Reference (primarily from catch-and-shoots), and Crabbe, though he’s limited otherwise, should fit in well alongside the playmaking of Young, as he has a lifetime three-point shooting clip of 39.3%.

Throw in I believe a better shooter than his collegiate splits at Duke suggest in rookie wing Cam Reddish, an improved shooter in 7-foot-1 center Alex Len, who had 11.1 points per game and shot 36.3% in his first year really being a volume shooter from three-point range, along with a capable slasher in DeAndre’ Bembry (8.4 points in 23.6 minutes per game, per NBA.com), and Atlanta, including Vince Carter, who could be a reliable offensive presence still a bit, will be very difficult for the Cleveland Cavaliers to defend given their quality ball and man movement.

The Hawks played at the league’s fastest pace last year and were ninth in assist rate and were fourth in three-pointers made per game (per NBA.com), and were sixth in catch-and-shoot points per game.

Their ball movement will be on full display against the Cavaliers, who had the league’s worst defensive rating, in 2019-20.

Offensively, though, the Cavs should again, have plenty of success against Atlanta, who didn’t get much better on defense.

Atlanta no longer has a good interior defender in Dewayne Dedmon (who left via free agency to the Sacramento Kings), so I’d think Kevin Love should be able to take advantage early and often both on the low block and as a floor spacer against Len, who doesn’t love contact and is not the most mobile.

Love’s presence should help space the floor for players such as Sexton, Garland, Osman, Porter and Jordan Clarkson (if he’s active and is not traded) as drivers, and Love’s inside-out scoring should open up lob passes for Garland, Osman and Matthew Dellavedova for Larry Nance Jr. against Atlanta, too.

With Cleveland feasibly being able to target Young, a very poor defender, a bunch, and likely take advantage when doubles come to help Young to combat that, ball-swings should come for Windler, Love, Sexton, and some to Porter as perimeter shooters, and I’d think Windler and Osman could get high-percentage chances as cutters from Nance and others against a young Hawks’ defense, too.

Though Hunter and Reddish project to both be quality defenders on and off the ball for the Hawks, ball and man movement and screening on them, along with a good wing defender in Bembry, from players such as Ante Zizic (who should have his chances in the post, too) and potentially John Henson/Thompson/Love should lead to plenty of wide-open looks for Cleveland, anyhow.

Predicting the Cavs’ record against Atlanta in 2019-20: 2-2

Given that I’d think the Hawks will have their way offensively and have plenty of chances to push pace against the Cavaliers, I see them taking two out of three games.

Thompson and Henson, two bigs that could potentially help close off the lane a bit on defense and set good screens on and off the ball, could both feasibly not be on Cleveland in the last three meetings against Atlanta on February 12 (which is after the trade deadline), March 14 and on Tax Day on April 15, which won’t help defensively and in terms of rebounding presence.

Atlanta was 28th in defensive rating last year (per NBA.com), and will miss a quality wing defender and heady player in Taurean Prince (now on the Brooklyn Nets via the Crabbe trade), and though Reddish and Hunter (but not Solomon Hill, who was later dealt again to the Memphis Grizzlies after the aforementioned New Orleans deal) should help Atlanta improve some on defense, I would still expect the Cavs guard and Love to have their fill.

Nonetheless, Young and Huerter ultimately are too much for Cleveland in two of the meetings, and the teams split in all entertaining games.