Predicting how the Cleveland Cavaliers will do against the Atlantic Division

How the Cavs stack up against Toronto in 2019-20

The Toronto Raptors are the reigning NBA champions, largely thanks to Kawhi Leonard, who is now a Los Angeles Clipper courtesy of unrestricted free agency, but they still have plenty of other contributors that should make them a solid Eastern Conference team in 2019-20.

The Raptors still have good two-way veterans to rely on in Kyle Lowry and Marc Gasol to run offense through, and they have a potential now-franchise player going forward in power forward Pascal Siakam.

Siakam received the NBA’s Most Improved Player award in 2019, and had averages of 16.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game (per Basketball Reference). Siakam really put it all together for the Raps last season, and if he can improve his shooting off-the-bounce to pair with his driving, he’ll be even more difficult to account for.

I’d think Osman and Nance could fair decently defensively against Siakam, who will likely have to create on-ball more with the gravity of Leonard no longer on the floor with him, and given that Osman and Nance, especially, have good defensive IQ off-ball, I’d think they’d shut off Siakam’s diagonal and baseline cuts most of the time and force him out of the corner.

Lowry is still a very good floor general (and had a career-high 8.7 assists per game in 2018-19), but again, the loss of Leonard, one of the NBA’s best three-level scorers, will be a considerable one for Toronto’s offense, and I’d imagine Lowry’s playmaking splits might go back down to near the 6.9 per game he put up in 2017-18 (per Basketball Reference).

The loss of off-the-catch sharpshooter Danny Green to the Los Angeles Lakers via free agency (45.5% from deep last year) could play into that as well.

That being said, Lowry should consistently get his teammates in the right spots against the very young Cavs, and is a good penetrator and passer to the rim for players such as Serge Ibaka and Gasol, and I’d think should find his share of ball-swing three-pointers, too, against a likely scrambling Cavs’ perimeter D.

Gasol is a great passer and handoff player in his own right, too, and that could put the likes of Love, Tristan Thompson/Henson/Zizic in a bind as well in no-man’s land too often with Windler lagging behind trying to stay attached to Norman Powell or getting through screens to contest OG Anunoby.

Along with that, Toronto reserve point guard Fred VanVleet could be a problem as a shooter, too. He’s well-versed in the pick-and-roll as a passer and pull-up player, and shot 41.2% on catch-and-shoot triples last year (per NBA.com’s shot tracking data).

That won’t bode well for Sexton, Garland and/or Clarkson I wouldn’t think.

On the offensive end, Lowry and VanVleet are very good defenders against opposing guards, as they stay attached consistently through on and off-ball screens, and have active hands that bother shooters. That was on display from VanVleet throughout the NBA Finals against Stephen Curry, and I don’t know how much I trust Cleveland’s young playmakers against Lowry and VanVleet, who are pests.

Siakam is a terrific defender as well that is likely to give Osman and Nance problems with his 7-foot-3 length continually applying ball pressure and getting in passing lanes, and Gasol/Ibaka should be able to competently guard Love and I wouldn’t expect Toronto to double much, which could limit Cleveland’s ball-swing chances.

Throw in plus wing defenders in Anunoby (if he can be healthy next season) and versatile free agent signing combo guard/forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, too, and the three-point shooting looks for Cleveland I wouldn’t think will come around often.

Predicting the Cavs’ record against Toronto in 2019-20: 1-2

The Raptors are a team that has their share of veterans, and they have players with carved-out roles. That’s a rough matchup for the Cavaliers, who will be playing a bunch of young pieces big minutes, and will feasibly have roster turnover as the season progresses, which won’t make these games easier.

There would seem to be a chance that the Raptors shift gears and trade Gasol and/or Lowry (both are expiring), but I’d think they’d want to give them another shot for a deep postseason run moreso, and with Siakam’s rapid improvement.

I’ll say the Cavaliers take one game due to the Raps not being nearly the same without Kawhi, but again, Toronto is yet another tough matchup.

That’s it for the Cavs-Atlantic Division predictions.

How do these compare to your predictions for Cleveland against the Atlantic in 2019-20, Cavs fans?

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