2019-20 predictions for Sexton: 13.2 PPG on 54.2% true shooting, 3.2 APG, 29.1 MPG and 80 games active
As KJG contributors have discussed countless times, Sexton showed that he could fill it up as a scorer in his rookie campaign, and particularly, after the All-Star break.
Last year, he was second among qualified players on the Cleveland Cavaliers in scoring with 16.7 points per game on 52.0% true shooting (per NBA.com), trailing only Clarkson, and again, closed the season really strong when it comes to scoring the basketball, and from three-point land, mostly.
Though the statistics didn’t show it, I was encouraged by the way Sexton was making better decisions in games and wasn’t forcing things as often with less contested mid-range shots taken, and as I’ve said a number of times, he was at least moving the ball to open shooters when the opportunities presented themselves more in the last few months of the season.
He’ll be mostly a scorer in terms of mindset in 2019-20 again, but I don’t see Sexton having a usage rate of 24.7% as he had as a rookie (per NBA.com), with Love likely on the floor much more with him next season, who is the team’s best offensive player and scorer, and Garland, Windler and Porter could eat into Sexton’s time as the Cavaliers’ main on-ball creator, too.
In turn, I see his scoring production dipping, but with more players that are realistic floor-spacers and scorers around him, that’s not on Sexton drastically regressing or anything, but those pieces need the ball in their hands to get into a rhythm. Still, though, his playmaking probably won’t get a glowing endorsement, and with the Cavs’ drafting of Garland, it’s hard to see Sexton growing a ton in that aspect.
As for the two games away from a complete season, I see the Cavs eventually giving Collin a rest two games this year is all; we all know he’s as hard-working as it gets, though, and having him do that won’t be easy, but it’s sensible at a few points in a long season for a key player in a rebuilding situation.