Cleveland Cavaliers: Does Collin Sexton fit with prior rookie PG trends?

We tend to inherit the opinions of our forefathers, especially when it comes to sports. But times change and basketball evolves, so shouldn’t our unthinking memes? In particular, does it still take a while to develop a point guard, and will it in the Cleveland Cavaliers’ case with Collin Sexton?

This is probably a more involved question than a simple blog post could answer. But it’s a question worth pondering given how dramatically the league has changed in the past dozen years.

The ascendance of the three-point game is obviously the driving force. Where once teams may have posted players up and created an inside-out game, changes in defensive rules enabling more effective double-teams (allowing off-side defenders to essentially play zone) have changed that dynamic. Now offense is typically created through dribble drives forcing the defense to collapse and opening up three-point shooters, i.e. the ole drive-and-kick.

It’s just a guess, but perhaps as point guards are being called on less to create for others and are being relied on more as the engine of the offense, their learning curve’s flattened. Could the fact that the pro game more resembles the college game, with the top point guards as the focal point of the offense, have made the transition easier?

One need only look at players like Michael Conley, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Kemba Walker, Damian Lillard – all were drafted in the top six and quickly ascended to the top quartile at their position. Indeed of the 25 point guards taken in the top 10 since 2007, just four (Kris Dunn, Dante Exum, Jamal Murray, Frank Ntilikina) failed to play at least 26 minutes/game their rookie season.

Obviously, part of that is because if you draft in the Top 10, your team’s prospects aren’t all that bright in most instances. That said, it’s still a process.

During their rookie season, only eight of the aforementioned 25 were able to produce a point or more of VORP (according to numbers from Basketball Reference), which measures value above replacement level. (For those wondering, it was Rose, Wall, Marcus Smart, Lonzo Ball, Lillard, Brandon Jennings and Irving in ascending order.)

To get a feel for what the Cleveland Cavaliers might expect from their explosive rookie Collin Sexton, I looked at the debuts of every point guard taken in the first twenty picks.

By and large, players who improved made a higher percentage of their two and three-pointers. Not everyone improves. For example, players who entered the NBA as already skilled mid-range shooters often didn’t see much improvement.

Also, below average three-point shooters didn’t improve much either, presumably focusing on other aspects of their game and choosing to “limit their exposure” by not taking many. (That was probably easier to accomplish a few years ago than now.)

One thing stuck out in looking at these player’s debuts and their careers: Their free throw rate (measured as the ratio of free throw attempts to field goals) remained remarkably consistent. Sure it might go up or down from year to year, but to a shocking extent, players free throw rates their rookie year held for their career.

On a certain level this makes sense. How often a player gets to the stripe is a manifestation of their overall aggressiveness with the ball. That’s to some extent wired into the temperament of the player.

While players might certainly struggle to get the same calls they got in college, by and large it would seem their desire to slash is baked into their personal style of play. If you look at the number of free throws/game these point guards took their last year of college, the list is pretty similar to the guys with the top free throw rate (FTR).

Meanwhile guys who didn’t draw many fouls in college – like Jrue Holiday (1.7), D’Angelo Russell (4.5) and Murray (4.2) – don’t generally turn it around when they hit the pros. The rare exception is Russell Westbrook, who shot just 3.8 free throws/game at UCLA, a relatively low rate, only to become the NBA’s most feckless driver once he arrived. (Eric Bledsoe made a similar change to his game his second year in the league.)

The other thing to watch for is the turnovers. While rookie point guards typically got them under better control after a few years in the league, there is a consistent theme of high turnover rates and low assist-to-turnover rates.

Again, like with the mid-range shooting, this applies more to those for whom playmaking is a secondary skill. Those who came into the league with strong A/T ratios tend to maintain them better and have less trouble with turnovers.

It may seem hard to know what to expect from a rookie point guard, but the way the game’s changed the last few years made that transition easier. That should give Cleveland Cavaliers fans more confidence that Sexton can build upon his already apparent skills and quickly become a featured part of the team’s offense.

That his greatest asset – his speed and ability to get to the rim – translates so well as an NBA skill should let Cleveland Cavaliers fans rest a little easier, while we await opening night.