How likely is a Cleveland Cavaliers D turnaround? We check the history.

When Tristan Thompson said last week that he was expecting the Cleveland Cavaliers to play top 10 defense this coming season (after finishing 29^th in defensive rating last season), I rolled my eyes so hard I nearly sprained them. Just how likely is that kind of a turnaround?

In the past 18 seasons, just three teams have moved into the defensive top 10 after finishing in the league’s bottom three the prior year. Half of those teams finished 25^th or worse the following season, and nearly a quarter (13) finished in the bottom troika again, a half-dozen of those finished last, half of those repeating. So historically speaking, the Cleveland Cavaliers are as likely to have the worst defense in the league as a top 10 defense.

To be sure, there’s a natural regression to the mean. On average teams improve their defensive rating (according to NBA.com stats) by two and a half points after finishing in the bottom three. Their net rating (difference between offense and defense) improves by over three points, they win seven more games and improve their ranking by seven spots on average.

The idea really is that when you hit bottom you know it. For many teams it’s a turning point. Seventeen teams – nearly a third – improved by 10 or more spots and 10 teams improved by 15 or more spots. But there’s obviously a limit. While 17 teams improved their defensive rating by 4.5 points or more, just four improved by 7+ points.

Who were these teams? The 2013-14 Jazz (+7), 2012-13 Bobcats (+7.7), 2010 Raptors (+8.5) and 2013 Bucks (+10.6). Also worth noting are the 2015-16 New Orleans Pelicans, who improved from 28^th to 9^th in the league but only got 2.5 points better defensively.

What changed for these teams?

2015-16 New Orleans Pelicans. This was Alvin Gentry’s first year coaching the team, so that probably played some role. They replaced the team’s two worst defenders – Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon – (or at least a lot of those minutes) with better defenders Terrence Jones, Dante Cunningham and Solomon Hill. Worth noting that those moves didn’t improve the Pelicans offensive efficiency while league scoring soared, causing them to fall ten spots from 16^th to 26^th in offensive rating.

2013-14 Utah Jazz. This one’s pretty easy to attribute. Utah fired Ty Corbin and installed Quinn Snyder, who improved the team by 13 wins, in large part by giving then-rookie Rodney Hood (98.7 drtg)  and second-year player Rudy Gobert (98.8) more time instead of (*cough*) Enes Kanter (112) and Trey Burke (110.7).

2012-13 Charlotte Bobcats. This was another fairly easy change to attribute as Charlotte moved on from a disastrous rookie coach (Mike Dunlap) to a rookie coach (Steve Clifford) able to get a lot more out of pretty much the same lineup. Just to put it in perspective, he got the three best defensive years out of Al Jefferson, who posted defensive ratings around five points better than his career average.

2010-11 Toronto Raptors. Lo and behold another coaching change. Noticing a trend? Jay Triano was canned (only to reappear seven years later in Phoenix with equally grim results) and replaced with Dwane Casey, who only got one more win, but created a much better defense. Casey slowed the pace (from 11^th ranked to 25^th, shedding three and a half possessions a game), and the team’s offensive efficiency dropped from 20th to 29th. The roster was largely the same as their first-round pick, Jonas Valanciunas, stayed overseas.

2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks. This was Cavaliers assistant coach Larry Drew’s last head coaching season, when three years of 40+ wins collapsed into a 15-win disaster. Ramon Sessions was on hand (as he was in Charlotte) though he had plenty of help from Luke Ridnour, OJ Mayo, Brandon Knight and first-year player Khris Middleton. They clearly weren’t as bad as they were Drew’s last year, but Scott Skiles captained a 26-win improvement and dramatic defensive turnaround to the second-best defensive team in the NBA. There were no dramatic lineup changes. Below average defender Jabari Parker was their pick, and they traded Knight for Michael Carter-Williams at the trade deadline. Zaza Pachulia and Jared Dudley offered solid bench contributions, but most of the credit has to go to Skiles.

So that’s the sad truth. Every dramatic improvement in defensive rating came after the team changed coaches. While personnel changes had something to do with it in a couple cases, it seems to come down to the demands of a new coach, and perhaps his ability to change the culture.

Perhaps the departure of LeBron James and the installation of high-energy guys like Cedi Osman and Collin Sexton into the lineup will be enough to turn around the teams defensive morass. But there’s reason to question how good the defense can be playing at a high pace and if Tyronn Lue’s capable of getting it out of them.

When Lue took over from David Blatt in 2016, the team was 5^th in the NBA in defense rating (99.7). They were 12^th (104.8) over the rest of the season. In 2016-17 they were 22^nd (108.0) and last year they finished 29^th allowing 109.5 points per 100 possessions. Needless to say, the trajectory’s been bad.

So if the Cavaliers want a Top 10 defense, historically speaking, they might need to consider their coaching options.