5 things that must happen for Collin Sexton to win Rookie of the Year

5. Other top rookies must struggle.

Like any Rookie of the Year race, the winner is often benefitted by his peers’ less ideal situations. After all, the best prospects go to the worst teams.

Ayton, the top pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, will have his work cut out for him on the Suns. Many analysts believe he will have a bigger impact in the pros due to the NBA’s floor spacing but the Suns do not space the floor like the average NBA team.

Last season, they ranked dead last in three-point percentage (33.4).

In a clogged paint, Ayton could experience trouble overpowering his opponents in the post.

Bagley III, the second overall pick, got selected by the Kings. Quite frankly, his environment is already a recipe for disaster.

Furthermore, in Summer League, Bagley showed his elite physicality and athleticism while at Duke may not translate smoothly against NBA athletes.

He may also face a similar problem to Ayton with floor spacing. Although he did shoot 39.7 percent from deep in college, the Ringer’s Jonathon Tjarks has pointed out that this was only on 1.8 attempts per game on a shorter 3-point line.

Tjarks also brought up his 62.7 percent free throw shooting on 6.8 attempts per game as a perhaps more reliable indicator of Bagley’s shooting ability.

Bagley might then benefit from a spaced floor like Sexton but the Kings—outside of Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic—lack the deadly shooters to truly provide him space.

Doncic, the fifth overall pick, is in an interesting situation. As Euroleague MVP, the Slovenian point-forward certainly has the most experience out of any rookie entering the league. He is fantastic at facilitating an offense and a decent shooter.

However, his athleticism and speed was a concern for several teams in the draft. These concerns ultimately dropped him from being the consensus number one pick. Doncic may not be strong or fast enough to be as productive at the NBA-level.

What’s more, he may become slightly marginalized in a Mavericks lineup that will hold Dennis Smith Jr., Wesley Mathews, and Dirk Nowitzki. If the Mavs work to play through Doncic, his elite vision and passing ability could translate to the NBA, especially if he gets to work in tandem with newly acquired DeAndre Jordan.

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Knox, picked ninth by the Knicks, has recently been touted as New York’s savior. He averaged 23.3 points and 7.3 rebounds at Summer League and wowed with his shot-creating, and making, ability.

Knox has the same questions around him that surround Sexton as he enters his rookie year: will his Summer League prowess translate to the pros? Of the other three players ranked above Sexton in ROTY odds, he probably comes into a team best built to give him minutes and use him effectively.

Of course, there’s always a chance that Sexton faces his biggest competition from someone off the radar.

After all, 2017’s 13^th overall selection Donovan Mitchell gave Ben Simmons a run for his money this past season for the award.

Maybe there’s a chance someone like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Mikal Bridges bursts onto the scene this year.

Collin Sexton for Rookie of the Year

Collin Sexton has more than a fighting chance at winning Rookie of the Year honors this season.

If these five things happen, his chance will only increase.

The Young Bull could quickly become Cleveland’s most exciting and explosive player.